If my memory serves correctly, he discovered a love for number-crunching during his days back in Michigan and doing stats while following his beloved Detroit Tigers. I, of course, happen to be a huge Tigers fan. So I appreciate anybody who is a Tigers fan, even if I think sometimes that their political views are a bit left of center.

You have to love baseball or maybe you HATE AMERICA.

Okay, I'm just joking. 

Maybe.

So, my colleague here at RedState, Ward Clark, has an interesting piece about Nate's thoughts on why the Dems can't jettison Joe Biden at this stage of the game. Nate Silver: It's Probably Too Late for Dems not to Nominate Joe Biden I was curious to see what Nate said.

An excerpt from that article

Fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver has some interesting thoughts on that.

I’ve written a lot about Joe Biden lately. But I’ve somewhat intentionally avoided the subject of whether I think Democrats would have a better chance of winning the 2024 election with a different nominee. In the spirit of being transparent with Silver Bulletin readers, I feel like I ought to be more explicit about addressing this. However, my answer probably isn’t going to satisfy anyone:

• With medium confidence, I think the risks of a serious primary challenge to Biden at this point in time would outweigh the benefits for Democrats.

• With low confidence, I think the risks of Biden volunteering not to run for a second would also outweigh the benefits for Democrats, but this is closer.

• With low confidence, and taking full advantage of hindsight bias, I think Democrats probably would have been better off if Biden had announced 6-12 months ago that he wouldn’t seek a second term.

• I think Biden’s situation is somewhat unprecedented and that these are hard questions for Democrats. Almost no matter what happens, people in 2025 will treat the answers as having been more obvious than they actually were.

Ward gives a great breakdown of all the points above, so I encourage you to check his article out after you are done here.

Now to set this up, I have to give some background here first, with an article I wrote earlier in Friday that tackled why the person who will NOT be replacing Sen. Feinstein and is currently the Vice President of the United States is looking to become the first female POTUS.  There Is Wild Speculation on Who Will Replace Sen. Feinstein — Why I Don't Think It Will Happen

From that article

Now to put it into a fuller context, Scott and I have been speculating who is going to replace Hunter's sugar daddy as President because both of us do not believe he'll be on the 2024 ticket. Joe Biden is failing right before our eyes and while the Democrats smile and grimace in public, they want to actually keep the White House in 2024; they are going to happily throw Scranton Joe under the bus.

Scott and I are unified in our agreement on that point.

Where Scott and I differ here is that I believe Harris becomes the first female president of the United States, and then the DNC kindly pulls her aside and says: enjoy your time on Air Force One but you will not be running for reelection. This is mainly because her popularity numbers are somewhere below the fun of school kids watching hungry Eskimos beat baby seals for food. 

Everyone has to eat but they don't have to like watching how the grub is made.

I simply do not see how the woman who absolutely lucked out being picked to be the running mate of the person who has become the most incompetent President of the United States that we've ever had (I'm including Warren Harding in this) will just step aside and take a lesser position.

As Dana Carvey used to say in his impersonation of George H.W. Bush, "Not going to do it."

Harris has fallen up her whole political career, and she is literally just one heartbeat or one slip away from obtaining the top political position that this country has to offer. She cannot -- and ultimately I believe, would not ever -- step down from her position as the dutifully elected Vice President of the United States.

The plain and simple reason why I will never buy into a theory that Kamala Harris would take another position that would deprive her of the chance of being the first female President is that she truly believes that, at some point during this first term, she will become the first female President.

Now, I'm not saying that some conspiracy theory has already been hatched and that the time and date of Joe Biden stepping down -- or slipping down the baby steps on Air Force One and doing a cartwheel -- have already been determined. Don't get it sideways about this; there are already enough conspiracy theories going on about how people who got the shot on October 4th are going to turn into zombies.

Google it, if you don't believe me.

Let's just go on the theory that the Democrats did interfere or CHEAT in the election of 2020.

They occupied the press with the bogus Russian conspiracy hoax, from the minute Donald Trump was inaugurated until the minute he left office on January 20, 2021.

They then had four years to cook up how they were going to mess up the 2020 election and make sure that a feeble near-imbecile would be able to beat somebody who was able to gain more votes than he did four years prior (against the heir apparent, Hillary Clinton).

They utilized those four years of exile and then refuted every attempt to try to prove otherwise after the 2020 election. Here we are, almost 13 months away from the next presidential election, and they see what we see. They see an old man tottering and teetering ...

• who's having trouble figuring out if he has his pants on.
• Who messes up words worse than a 2-year-old who is at least making an honest effort to communicate clearly;
• Who can fall asleep at the drop of a hat, in the middle of some of the world's most important meetings with the most important leaders, and take a solid nap.

Do you honestly think that the party that worked as hard as they did, and the people behind the scenes that orchestrated it, are just going to sit there and hand it off to whoever the GOP nominee eventually will be?

That defies common sense and logic.

The reason why I believe this is a center-left country now, even just slightly, is because the Democrats play a game that the Republicans have never mastered --Cutthroat Hardball. It's one of the reasons why Democrats can commit crimes and skate away free, while Republicans put their hands in their pockets and fumble with themselves.

You occasionally get somebody who talks tough but then doesn't follow through on the GOP side, and we've been fed a steady diet of that for years. This is why the country is in the shape it is now, which is why I wrote this on Thursday. Damn Right I'm Mad as Hell, My Country Is Going Down the Toilet.

The Democrats knew long before we did that Joe Biden was impaired, and they were only going to use him for a while as a stopgap for Trump. 

When the Biden family took their Christmas vacation in 2022 in the Caribbean, and came back and announced that he was going to run again, that probably took some of official Washington by surprise. But they were most likely prepared.

These cutthroat specialists always are.

Joe Biden, by hook or by crook, will not be the Democratic nominee at their convention next summer, and I truly believe that. The Democrats play to win and they know that Scranton Joe has served his purpose; it is time to thank him and send him off to the ice cream farm, where he can make up a bunch of stories to his lying heart's content.

That's the human element of politics that numbers never can convey, and it is why  I think Nate Silver is wrong on this count.

However, I say: go Detroit Tigers for 2024.

Let me know what you think by clicking on my BIO right here or scrolling down a bit and letting me know what you think in the Comments. You can reach me on Facebook, X (The Platform Formerly Known as Twitter), or my email address. I have no fear of listening and/or reading people with whom I do not see eye to eye.