Trumponomics Beats Bidenomics in Swing States, Every Time

There is a good reason the phrase "It's the economy, stupid," originally coined by Democrat strategist James Carville, made it into the nation's political vernacular; it's because Carville correctly noted that people tend to vote their wallets. Nothing wrong with that; people should vote for what they perceive as their own self-interest, and for most regular folks, that involves getting a good job, paying their bills, buying a house, and putting food on the table. So here we are, in the middle of another presidential election season, and the incumbent's economic record, set against his predecessor/opponent, looks bad.

The April Bloomberg/Morning Consult (hardly a Trump-loving platform) swing-state poll has the figures. And they aren't any comfort to the Biden campaign.

Americans give Donald Trump the edge over Joe Biden on the economy in poll after poll.
That’s even as the Biden years have been the best time to find work since the 1960s, and the US has bounced back from the pandemic with stronger growth than international peers such as the EU, UK and Japan and stronger growth overall than under President Trump.
Instead, voters this year are focused on the steep jump in prices from the post-pandemic surge in inflation.

First, Bloomberg glosses over the "job growth" issue; much of the Biden "job growth" has come from people going back to jobs, or at least careers, that they already had pre-COVID. They also fudge on inflation, as the current mess is caused not by a "post-pandemic surge" but by dumping trillions of fiat dollars into our economy and racking up the national debt at a logarithmic rate.

But there's no fudging the numbers. Note that the averages are post-WW2, so covering roughly 80 years of history.

Cumulative disposable income growth - under Trump, it was 12.4 percent; under Biden, 2.9. Historic average: 8.7.
Cumulative inflation - under Trump, 8.0 percent; under Biden, 21.3. Historic average 15.1.
Average unemployment rate - under Trump, 5.0 percent; under Biden, 4.1. Historic average: 5.8.
S&P 500 change, annualized - under Trump, 13.8 percent; under Biden, 10.2. Historic average: 7.8.
30y fixed mortgage rate average - under Trump, 4.0 percent; under Biden, 5.7. Historic average: 7.3.
Cumulative economic growth - under Trump, 7.4 percent; under Biden, 11.1. Historic average: 13.5.

So, let's dig into these numbers a bit.

Bidenflation, Bidenomics - Whatever You Call It, It's Still Hammering American Families

Biden appears to hold the advantage in two areas: unemployment and cumulative economic growth. Both of those are COVID bounce-back numbers, and as my grandfather, who was a father of six during a real economic downturn, was fond of saying, "When you're flat on your butt, the only way you can look is up."

Look at the other indicators, though, especially that first one: Cumulative disposable income growth, which was almost four times the rate under Trump than Biden. This is a telling indicator. Think about it for a moment; quality of life isn't just measured by one's ability to pay the basic expenses of life. Quality of life is also measured by how often one can take the kids to the water park, take one's spouse to the movies or out for a nice dinner, or buy a new car. That's dependent on disposable income. That's one of the most important economic indicators both campaigns should be watching.

There's another key difference: Former President Trump already has an economic record to run on. Voters can compare it to the Biden administration's record. And that won't help the Biden campaign; not one bit.

We're now only weeks away from the conventions, only months until the election, and the Biden administration is taking a beating on the economy. As always — as ever has been, and ever shall be — it's the economy, stupid.