Report: Code Red at Kamala HQ With Worries of North Carolina 'Slipping' Away (and Here's Why)

With two weeks to go before Election Day, reports are swirling that the panic has started to settle in at Kamala Harris' HQ, with her purported momentum now "stalled" and worries increasing about campaign operations in crucial "blue wall" states like Pennsylvania. Concerns are also growing about how she will fare with black and Latino male voters.

As we've talked about before, we're at a point in the election cycle where campaigns should be running like well-oiled machines. The fact that the Harris campaign isn't at this stage - especially in a state as important as Pennsylvania - is a deeply troubling sign for her.

Further, we're learning that there are real fears on the Harris-Walz team about North Carolina "slipping" away, which is not a good thing when you consider the Old North State was considered part of their "insurance" plan in the event they lose one of their blue wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin):

But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.

One of the things NBC News cited as a possible reason for those fears was the devastation in western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene.

But as it turns out, the issues are less about Helene and are more about these two things: the black vote not turning out as they have in previous election cycles for early voting and an unusually strong showing from GOP voters so far in EV.

Veteran North Carolina Democratic consultant Thomas Mills explained:

The most striking impact is among Black voters. So far, there are more than 67,000 fewer African American voters than there were in 2020 at this point in the in-person voting period. That’s a huge deficit that Democrats should be scrambling to address. They need to be shifting money and people to connect with Black voters and get them to the polls.
The problem is widespread. In Durham County, there are 4,500 fewer Black voter this year than four ago. In Mecklenburg, the number is 5,000. In Wake, it’s a little more than 3,000. In Cumberland, the Black vote is down by 5,000. In Guilford, the number is more than 8,500.
[...]
The GOP has a substantial early vote program that it has not had in the past. The votes they are banking now will likely reduce their traditional Election Day advantage, but it’s too early to know by how much. There’s some reduced turnout in the mountains due to the impact of Helene, but not as much as feared. It’s hard to know if the impact will have an effect on the outcome of the election.

Mills also warned that the low black turnout so far - if it continues - could mean that Democrat Rep. Don Davis in the 1st Congressional District (considered the sole "toss-up" district in the state) "will probably lose" his race to GOP nominee Laurie Buckhout. If so, it would be the first time since 1883 that seat went to a Republican (recent redistricting made it more competitive).

As far as the numbers go for Republicans vs. Democrats overall in North Carolina, here's what it looked like after day three, for instance:

NC Early Vote Update🗳️:
After the first 3 days of voting, data shows Dems off to historically slow start, electorate favors Republicans (so far). Comp'd to 2020:
📉Dems down 11.3%
📈GOP up 9%
📈Men up 1.7%
📈65+ block up 4.3%#ncpol #ncga
(source: ncsboe💻by me) pic.twitter.com/3Z9BibNNDd
— Mike Rusher (@mjrusher) October 20, 2024

And after day five:

Votes by party for all #ncpol early voting methods through Day 5 of 20 and 24👇GOP close to matching its record 20 turnout. DEMS and UNAS off pace.

DEM⬇️364,442
20: 847,517
24: 483,075

GOP⬇️31,722
20: 495,636
24: 463,914

UNA⬇️108,319
20: 535,871
24: 427,552
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) October 22, 2024

"It is still early but it is hard to read anything into this other than Trump and the GOP have an enthusiasm advantage over Harris and the Democrats," Blaine, former chief of staff to State Senate Leader Phil Berger, tells me.

Needless to say, the North Carolina Republican Party is pouncing on news of the Harris campaign fretting about the state:

Crazy that screaming Y'ALL and hosting drag shows at the @NCDemParty headquarters hasn't paid off.

CC: @abreezeclayton #NCPOL https://t.co/kSlHx1X2gK
— Matt Mercer (@mattmercer) October 22, 2024

Gee, ya think?