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Opinion: No, 'Not Joking' Trump Is Not Going to Seek a Third Term—and Here's Why

AP Photo/Ben Curtis

While nervous congressional Republicans continue to downplay President Donald Trump's talk of a third term, then he continues to say he's "not joking" and "there are methods" by which he could do so, other conservatives insist he's simply trolling the Democrats and their lapdog media. If Trump is trolling, is that a good idea?

Before I weigh in on the above question and more, let's revisit the goings-on that led us here.

During an exclusive phone interview with NBC News on Sunday morning, Trump said—regarding whether he would really consider a third term in office—that there are methods for doing so, while also insisting he wasn't joking: 

A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration. ... I’m not joking, but ... it is far too early to think about it. There are methods which you could do it.

Taken at face value, Trump didn't close the door on a third term. 

Again, while Trump loyalists continue to insist he's trolling the left—and even if he is—it only serves to give the left fodder to hold up as an example of their ridiculous warnings that he would work to become a dictator if he won the November election. 

And if Trump is serious—and there are "methods," as he correctly said—what are those methods, and is there a possibility on this green Earth that he'd actually pursue any of those methods? 


RELATED READING: Trump Trolls the Media Again With New Comments on Running for Reelection in 2028


Media political commentator Jonathan Turley broached the subject on Wednesday, opining that a third term in office for Trump is "unlikely":

The late Justice Antonin Scalia famously said that Congress does not “hide elephants in mouseholes.” His point was that courts are skeptical of using minor provisions in a statute to achieve sweeping new legal changes.

The challenge of stuffing an elephant into a mousehole came to mind this week after President Donald Trump said that he is “not joking” about considering a third term and that experts told him it is possible under the Constitution.

One often has to take such moments with a heavy dose of skepticism from a president who clearly relished handing snake-in-a-can soundbites to the media just to watch the resulting screams. If so, he was not disappointed. The media went into renewed vapors as commentators pronounced, yet again, the death of democracy.

However, given the president’s statement, it is important to be clear about the basis for this theory, which has long been something of a parlor game for law professors on how a president might be able to circumvent the two-term limitation imposed by the 22nd Amendment.

The relevant part of the 22nd Amendment reads:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

While the amendment refers to a person being “elected,” some advocates of a Trump third term argue that the amendment does not prevent a president from “serving” a third term. How could that happen? 

During Trump's interview with NBC, he was asked about a scenario in which Vice President JD Vance would run for office, with Trump as his running mate, win the election, and then resign—making Trump the president. "That's one" method, Trump responded. 

How would the Supreme Court rule on such a plan? While various opinions abound, the answer remains unknowable. 

Further, as written in the 12th Amendment, “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”

The bottom line, explains Turley, is—I believe—Trump's unforced error:

The fueling of this talk works in favor of those politicians and commentators who continue to claim that Trump is an autocrat committed to the destruction of the American democracy. It suggests that Trump is open to trashing constitutional traditions or language to achieve prolonged power.

Translation: While some on our side relish Trump's role as a master troller, this is one area where trolling, if he is indeed doing so, could potentially hurt both the president and congressional Republicans who defend such talk. 

It behooves the wise among us—including Trump, I hope—to understand that while he relishes playing to loyalists, his decisive president election win was made possible by untold numbers of Democrat crossover votes, including record numbers of Black and Hispanic voters, who may not have been huge fans, but voted as much against Harris-Walz as for Trump-Vance. 

Anyway, at the end of the proverbial day, Donald Trump is not going to seek a third term. 

Moreover, it wouldn't be in Trump's best interests to do so. 

If Donald Trump continues to deliver on his election pledges in a historic manner, and continues to do so with success, he will rank among the most consequential presidents in American history.

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