Decision Desk HQ has called the presidential race in the state of Georgia. Former President and GOP nominee Donald Trump has taken the state over Vice President and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris, earning the 16 electoral votes. Trump won by 51 percent versus Harris' 48 percent.

As of November 4, Nate Silver's 538 had projected that Trump would win Georgia by 48.2 percent to Kamala Harris 47.5 percent. The Real Clear Politics average had projected Trump winning by 49.1 percent to Kamala Harris' 47.8 percent. 

In 2024, Trump won by 4 percent (152,000 votes).

In 2020, Trump lost the state by 0.2 percent (12,670 votes) 

In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5 percent (211,141 votes).

Georgia counties generally report all absentee and early vote ballots first. Between October 15 and November 1, Georgia cast over four million early votes. Fifty-eight percent of white voters made up the lion's share of this number, according to Georgia Votes, a data aggregation site partnered with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Black voters were 26.4 percent of the early vote, and Hispanic and Asian voters combined made up roughly six percent of that count.

The wildcard in this election was the Black vote. Trump made gains in the Black community, especially among Black men. He was at 11 percent in 2020 and achieved 25 percent in 2024. 

FLIP ALERT: TRUMP ON PACE TO FLIP BALDWIN COUNTY, GA -- WOULD BE FIRST TIME GOP HAS WON COUNTY SINCE 2004; COUNTY IS 41% AFRICAN AMERICAN

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 6, 2024

Georgia has one of the largest percentages of Black population of any state, 33 percent versus 14 percent nationwide, and the "Chocolate City" of Atlanta has in the past been pivotal to the Democratic coalition in the state. Much was made of the elder statesman and de facto Atlanta Black community leader Michael "Killer Mike" Render's refusal to endorse Biden for president when he was still at the top of the ticket. When Biden was replaced by Vice President and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris, Render also refused to endorse her candidacy. Render chose to encourage the community that their power lies in voting for local candidates and concerns. This lack of endorsement may have worked to Harris' detriment, depressing Black turnout in these areas. The deployment of former President Barack Obama also appeared to have a reverse Midas effect.

Looks like Trump flipped Baldwin County GA--this county is 41 percent black.

Trump is first Republican to win this county since 2004 pic.twitter.com/BjUq4Xw0vC

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) November 6, 2024

Also critical to Trump's victory was the new RNC, which beefed up their election integrity times a thousand. The Trump-Vance Campaign and RNC sued Fulton County, Gwinnett County, Cobb County, DeKalb County, Athens-Clarke County, Clayton County, and Chatham County over their illegal move to open election offices soon after the close of early voting and accept ballots. The lawsuits enabled Republican poll watchers to gain entrance in order to ensure the validity of the vote counting. The lawsuit in Cobb County also resulted in 3,000 absentee ballots that arrived after the deadline would not be counted. Even with the DNC changing rules to incorporate absentee ballots after the designated deadline, the rapid response by the RNC was significant in mitigating this effect.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger projected that over one million voters cast their ballot on Election Day in addition to the over four million who participated in early voting. Just under 5 million Georgians participated in the 2020 election.