A new poll released on Tuesday from Emerson College Polling/8 News Now/The Hill shows former President Donald Trump has an edge over incumbent President Joe Biden in key swing states. 

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said:

The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November. The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.

In every one of the seven key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Trump narrowly led Biden, most within the margin of error  (+/- 3%), except in Arizona and North Carolina, where Trump has a larger lead.

Specifically regarding Nevada, a swing state that the former president has never won, the numbers show Trump with a 45.1 percent lead to 44.2 percent support for Biden. This is a slimmer margin of less than one point compared to the March Emerson poll, where Trump led Biden by 2.7 points with 43.9 percent to 41.2 percent and 14.9 percent Undecided.

The Silver State's Undecided voters currently make up a 10.7 percent share. However, when the Undecided Nevada voters were asked who they were leaning toward, Trump was favored by almost three and a half points over Biden, 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent. 

Independent voters in five of the seven swing states broke for Trump, Kimball said:

Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48 to 38 percent), Michigan (44 to 35 percent), Nevada (43 to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 to 33 percent), and North Carolina (41 to 38 percent). However, they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42 to 38 percent) and Wisconsin (44 to 41 percent).

While the third-party candidates have not qualified for the ballot yet in Nevada, in a theoretical match-up, Independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes 7.7 percent of the vote. Independent candidate Cornel West takes 1.6 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein soaks up 0.9 percent. Undecided voters remain about the same at 10.6 percent. 

The net effect reduces Biden’s support to 37.1 percent while Trump enjoys 42.1 percent support, an advantage of five points.

In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, there’s a similar third-party effect, while North Carolina tilts even heavier toward Trump. Kennedy takes 8.5 percent of the vote in Arizona, but Trump’s lead of .9 percent stays about the same.

The top issues among Nevada voters, in descending order of priority based on the percentages, are the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes) at 32.7 percent, followed by housing affordability at 14.4 percent, immigration at 13.3 percent, education at 12.0 percent, and health care at 7.4 percent. Notably, Democrats' headliner talking points, with concerns about threats to democracy (6.6 percent) and abortion access (4.7 percent), were mentioned by only a small percentage of voters.

In response to the trial involving Trump, 51.3 percent of Nevada voters said the trial is appropriate to hold him accountable, 40.1 percent labeled it as a witch hunt, and 8.6 percent were unsure. Regarding potential outcomes, 32.3 percent said they would be less likely to support Trump if he’s found guilty, 33.2 percent said they would be more likely to support him, and 34.5 percent said it didn’t matter.

The conclusion drawn from the survey of 1,000 voters from each swing state is that the presidential race remains closely contested while Trump maintains an edge. The polling was conducted between April 25th and 29th.