In recent years, the United States has suffered from increasing bouts of political protests and riots. Aside from the notorious 2020 "mostly peaceful" Summer of Love protests, we've had round after round of campus protests over Israel's reaction to the vicious attacks on its citizens by Gaza-based Hamas terrorists. Our country is becoming increasingly politically polarized, and the Democrats in particular have dragged their party's Overton window so far to the left--as to leave Upton Sinclair scratching his head and wondering just what they think they're doing.
This is fueling a lot of speculation on what might happen next. Bridgewater Associates hedge fund founder and billionaire investor Ray Dalio, in a recent interview, expressed his opinion that there is a one in three chance of outright civil war in the United States in the near future:
“We are now on the brink,” Dalio said. Still, he said, it’s not known yet “if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”
Dalio said a modern-day civil war wouldn’t necessarily be one where people “grab guns and start shooting,” although it is possible.
What he means by civil war, Dalio explained, is an acceleration of political polarization where people would “move to different states that are more aligned with what they want,” and one in which people wouldn’t follow the decisions and direction of federal authorities.
The billionaire said he thinks this November’s election is the most critical one in his lifetime. The outcome this fall will determine if the risks he sees could actually happen, Dalio argued.
There are a couple of things that I think Mr. Dalio overlooks.
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First, a civil war, the defining thing about a civil war, the thing that makes it a war, is the fact that people grab actual guns and start shooting at one another. That's what happens in wars, and if you do not have any people shooting at each other, it may be a conflict, it may be a protest, it may even be a riot, but it's not a war. In fact, what Mr. Dalio is talking about is a political sorting process, which is pretty much what's going on right now.
Second, while I think that the odds of an actual civil war are lower than Mr. Dalio anticipates - I'd say one in 10 - there are some significant indicators that he doesn't mention. For example, in 2024 alone we have had one political party trying to have a major candidate of the other party removed from state ballots, which also happened in 1860. We have had a compact of states form an alliance (rightly so, if you ask me) to thwart the federal government - which also happened in 1860.
There has been no official secession effort, which triggered the 1860-1865 war of secession, but there have been discussions in California and Texas, among other places.
In other words, while the country is still holding together, the tensions and unrest are undeniable. There are a couple of inflection points that may make or break any such possibility this year, including the national conventions of both major parties, and the presidential elections in November.
This is something we should hope never happens. A second civil war would be catastrophic. It would be fought not on distant fields, not by massive armies maneuvering against each other in open country. It will be fought in the streets, in the towns, amongst us in ways no other war has touched us since the Revolution, and if similar conflicts are any indication – see not only Bosnia but also the Spanish Civil War – it will result in hatreds that will last generations. Any such conflict would be largely a battle between urban and rural, with suburbs and exurbs going in both directions.
A second civil war would very probably be the end of the United States as we know it, and it’s unlikely anything that arises out of the ashes will have any respect for individual rights and liberties.
