This week, the Democrat National Convention comes to Chicago to (officially) nominate their new and never before voted on (in the 2024 cycle) candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, for President of the United States. And her “stolen valor” but acceptable-to-the-Democrat-antisemitic-base, vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz.

Which makes this another good time to discuss the state of play for the 2024 presidential race.

The Real Clear Politics national average has Harris with a 1.2 percentage point advantage over former President Donald Trump. The average has been going up and down as of late; the irrational exuberance of the Democrats has ended, with the numbers beginning to settle.

Which is really good for me, since I am not sure I could take any more “Harris is surging, we are all doomed” commentary from my hyper online, poll-fixated Republican buddies, three of whom I had to coax down from their window ledges over the past few weeks.  

Remember, for Harris to win the electoral college, she must be at least three points up on election day.  (Assuming the polls are, this year, not underestimating Trump again, as they did in 2016 and 2020.) Indeed, if you look into the battleground state averages, Trump is up in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and (most importantly) Pennsylvania. That’s the ball game right there, folks!

And President Joe Biden’s presidential approval is still at 41 percent. Making him, in the eyes of the nation, a failure, who is still very much attached to his vice president, Harris.

Now, in all the attention that has been paid to the bouncing polls, little attention has been paid to the underlying facts/issues of the coming election. As I have said before, these facts are: 1) the economy is bad; 2) the border is porous (with criminals, terrorists, and killers coming in, unvetted); 3) the world is in chaos (resulting in riots in the U.S.); and Harris is an obvious diversity pick of a candidate (based on Joe Biden's own comments about his selection) who is noted for being disinterested in tackling those tasks handed her and awkwardly insincere, and has a crazy leftwing record to boot.

So, let’s project a little, shall we?

The DNC is projected to have tens of thousands (if not over one hundred thousand) of antisemitic Democrat protesters outside the convention in Chicago to protest U.S. funding for “Israel's war in Gaza,” Axios' Monica Eng reported. Violence is expected.

Maybe, just maybe, this coming violent chaos may interfere with the usual convention stage-managed show being planned by the Democrats? Maybe, just maybe, the nutballs running around, exposing themselves on the streets, destroying things, carrying around Hamas and Hezbollah flags, including the “Queers for Palestine” who can’t fathom that Palestine is not for them, the excessively unwashed, pierced, and tattooed violent protestors will not be helpful in appealing to the swing voters of the 2024 election.

Just like their predecessors in rioting weren’t very helpful in the 1968 election.

I am also projecting that the GOP will be focused on exposing Harris’ issues, like they have been doing since she was selected (but not elected). During the Olympics, the GOP cut back on advertising – per conventional wisdom – but now this will pick up steam. There are many excellent attack ads, including this one mentioned by my RedState colleague, that used Harris’ own words against her. (An unforced mistake by Harris.) She will also be tied to the horrendous record of the Biden administration, of which she is the NUMBER 2 (and who does Number 2 work for?), and from which she has made no real effort to separate herself by criticizing Biden publicly on a major issue. (Another mistake.) 

I am also projecting that the MSM and the Democrats will keep their focus heavily on Donald Trump. When Trump says something at his free-wheeling rallies, or on social media, the usual process is that the MSM/Democrats edit the video or message/drops context/ignores obvious attempts at humor, or just flat-out lies about what Trump has said, trying to twist it into something to show that DONALD TRUMP IS (STILL) THE DEVIL.

Once again, this is a mistake because the swing voters are the ones that matter here, and they have been exposed to nine years of candidate Donald Trump. They know that Trump does the mean tweets and that he says lots of exaggerated, if not wacky, things. But they also know that during his four-year term, the nation and the world were in a much better place than they are now. The Democrats need something new here because they have cried wolf too often, and no one not already on their team believes their BS anymore. But they won’t change; they believe their own propaganda. (Another mistake.)

I also project that because Harris and Walz are such dedicated leftists, they will continue to promote left-wing solutions to the problems that have arisen as a result of the terrible mismanagement of the Biden-Harris administration. You know, like their decision to promote price controls, a real winner of an idea.

It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for 'em.   

Then we will have the debates. The bull in the china shop approach of Donald Trump vs. the cackling lightweight approach of Kamala Harris. Will Harris be able to do well? Maybe, but she will have to prepare for it, and tone down her word salads and laughter, something that she has been notoriously unwilling to do before.

The vice-presidential debate is pretty easy to call. JD Vance is not going to let up on the stolen valor of Tim Walz, an easily understandable criticism that is quite devasting to Walz with a normal, objective swing voter.  

Then, there will be, as mentioned by another RedState colleague, the September Surprise – Judge Juan Merchan may well impose a jail sentence on Trump following the former president's guilty verdicts on 34 counts of business fraud. This reappearance of obvious lawfare will work wonders — for the Trump campaign.

The closer we get to the election, the more the swing voters are forced to focus on the race and decide who wins it. It is then that they will be exposed, in some cases, for the first time, to many of the arguments made by both sides. They will be told that Donald Trump is the Devil and that Kamala Harris is the lefty diversity vice president of Joe Biden. 

As I keep saying, that is a good contrast for Donald Trump.