I last looked at the state of the race in mid-August. 

See Related: Looking at the State of the Race: Trump/Vance vs. Harris/Walz

At that time I concluded:

This race is still very, very close, and no matter what happens, there will be no landslide victory for either side. This thing will be fought down to the wire, with a 2000-style outcome much more likely than a 1972 or 1984-style drubbing. Both sides will, certainly, be planning to keep up the pace until the very end.

That is still my assessment now. Here's why.

First, let's look at the battleground states. The Trump campaign numbers have slipped a little in the RCP averages. Trump maintains a lead only in Arizona and North Carolina, and in both of those states by one point or less. Trump/Vance is tied with the Harris/Walz ticket in Pennsylvania. The Harris/Walz ticket leads at the moment in the others, again by narrow margins:

• Nevada: +0.6
• Wisconsin: +1.4
• Michigan: +1.1
• Georgia: +0.1

If we accept all of the leads as holding on to the election and assume that the Trump campaign takes Pennsylvania, that gives Harris/Walz a 273-265 victory. That is a hair-thin victory by any margin, although if Harris/Walz managed to flip PA as well, that would give them a much more comfortable 292-246 win. 

However, if Trump can hold Pennsylvania and then flip back Georgia or any one of the remaining Rust Belt states, that changes the result.

• Flipping Georgia: Trump, 281-257
• Flipping Michigan: Trump, 280-258
• Flipping Wisconsin: Trump, 275-263

The one other battleground that looks to be in play is Nevada. If the Trump/Vance team can hold PA and carry Nevada, that gives them a hair-thin 271-267 win.

For the Trump team, it all comes down to Pennsylvania and Georgia. Holding PA and one other state gives the Trump ticket the win. The RCP average in PA now is a tie, and the latest polls are very narrowly favoring Harris in Georgia:

• CNN (8/23-8/29): Harris +1
• Bloomberg/MrnConsult (8/23-8/26): Harris +1
• FOX News (8/23-8/26): Harris +2
• NY Times/Siena (8/9-8/14): Trump +3
• Cook Political Report (7/26-8/2): Trump +3

That trendline isn't looking good for the Republican ticket. In PA, the outlook is a little better.

• Trafalgar Group (8/18-8/30): Trump +2
• The Hill/Emerson (8/25-8/28): Tie
• CNN (8/23-8/29): Tie
• Bloomberg/MrnConsult (8/23-8/26): Harris +4
• InsiderAdvantage (8/18-8/19): Trump +1
• Rasmussen Reports (8/13-8/17): Trump +1

The upshot? Trump/Vance must take Pennsylvania. With PA in the bag, they can lose the rest of the Rust Belt and still (narrowly) win. But if the Harris/Walz ticket takes PA on November 5th, we may as well all go for an early night, if the current trends hold.

Now, that's a Brobdignagian "if." This has hardly been a normal campaign season, and these are hardly normal candidates. There are a million unknowns here: a GOP candidate fighting against an unprecedented lawfare campaign being waged against him and a Democratic candidate who was not nominated through the normal process but anointed following the collapse of the former candidate, whose mental and physical deterioration national Democrats — including the current candidate — have been doing their best to conceal for at least two years.

Also, in the last couple of presidential cycles (2016 and 2020) the national polling has underestimated the Republican vote.

Some other tidbits: I reported last month that Scott Rasmussen had Trump narrowly leading in his estimation, but there are several flaws in his analysis.

See Related: Rasmussen: Trump Turns the Tide?

On Rasmussen's report, I wrote at the time:

Also bear in mind that this poll isn't a survey of the battlegrounds, which is where close elections are decided, and in those, Trump's numbers have been slipping. A general survey like this is interesting but doesn't take the Electoral College into account. No matter who wins in the end, this election is bound to be a nail-biter, and it will be decided by a few thousand ballots in a few states — very likely in a few cities.

These national polls are leaning Harris' way — but that's not how we decide elections.

Finally, Nate Silver, in his model, is giving Trump a lead:

“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin.

“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” he added.

His model has given Trump a significant boost in a single week, with his odds going from 52.4% to 58.2%. Harris’s odds decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.

Trump’s chances are approaching his high of 61.3% on July 30, when the model was launched. Harris had a 38.1% chance.

Even so: At this point, it's a nail-biter.

In five days comes the debate, and the pressure is on both candidates, but in particular on Trump. This is his chance to stage a breakthrough. Kamala Harris is just plain no good at this format; she cannot think on her feet. Trump is quick with replies and good at extemporaneous speaking. In his trademark rallies, he has a tendency to wander into long-winded anecdotes and yarns, but the debate format forces him to stay more focused, and the "mic-off" rule — assuming it's adhered to — will eliminate a lot of the jibes and barbs that have, at times, made him look petty in previous such events. And, yes, Trump has to slam-dunk this debate.

See Related: NEW: Hold on - Is Kamala Trying to Change Debate Rules AGAIN, Even As She's Struggling in Debate Prep

Since the late '70s, I've been watching elections like a lot of guys watch sportsball. This one is like nothing I've seen before. It's like nothing any of us have seen before. And right now, it could very easily go either way. On Election night, I suspect we may all be up late — unless Harris takes PA.

Buckle up, folks. It's going to get weirder unless I miss my guess.