Hunga Tonga also, being an undersea eruption, shot about 150 million tonnes (yes, metric, I know) of water vapor into the atmosphere. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas - much more so than carbon dioxide. 

The results of that water vapor on the global climate are still being felt.

Experts in stratospheric science around the world started examining satellite observations from the first day of the eruption. Some studies focused on the more traditional effects of volcanic eruptions, such as the amount of sulphate aerosols and their evolution after the eruption, some concentrated on the possible effects of the water vapour, and some included both.

But nobody really knew how the water vapour in the stratosphere would behave. How long will it remain in the stratosphere? Where will it go? And, most importantly, what does this mean for the climate while the water vapour is still there?

Those were exactly the questions we set off to answer.

And the answers?

For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters.

The volcano seems to change the way some waves travel through the atmosphere. And atmospheric waves are responsible for highs and lows, which directly influence our weather.

It is important here to clarify that this is only one study, and one particular way of investigating what impact the Hunga Tonga eruption might have on our weather and climate. Like any other climate model, ours is not perfect.

A quick look through the results seems to indicate that the change Hunga Tonga has on the global climate is "not that much."

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But, as the authors point out, science is tentative, and theirs is only one study, done with techniques largely invented for the task at hand.

Note, though, that the impact of Hunga Tonga - 150 million metric tons (that's 165 million or so good American tons) had some measurable effect in northern Australia and may result in milder winters for a few years to come across the northern hemisphere. That doesn't seem like a world-ending catastrophe.

Here's the thing: The Earth is big. Really, really big - as noted above. It's also, to some degree, self-correcting. While the climate does indeed change, it generally changes over cycles that are hard for humans to understand - cycles that last thousands, millions of years. And through most of Earth's history, it's been warmer than it is now - sometimes a lot warmer. 

What does Hunga Tonga tell us? That everything that happens has an effect, but also that there's no reason to panic and, essentially, throw away our modern, technological lifestyle. A volcano's output makes us feel pretty puny, and well it should. But the Earth abides, its cycles can't be easily altered, and right now we're in a warming trend coming out of the Wisconsonian glaciation, which peaked about 20,000 years ago. Before that glaciation was the Sangamonian Interglacial, which began about 125,000 years ago and during which the Earth was, again, warmer than now; in fact, the Sangamonian would have been a pretty pleasant time to live in.

So, no, there's no reason to panic. Hunga Tonga had some effect. Human activities have some effect. But the Earth moves on its cycles, regardless of us tiny little critters moving about on its surface.

Humans have done amazing things to clean up the planet since I was young. There's more we could do - nuclear power, for instance - but the bleating of the climate scolds should be disregarded. Calmer heads should prevail. Hunga Tonga is a lesson in that. We can have both - clean air and water, a decent climate, and a modern, technological society powered by abundant, reliable, and cheap energy. And bear in mind, the climate scolds seem little concerned about their own effect. They will retain their private jets, their yachts, and their filet mignon with spotted owl appetizers. It’s not the climate they are pushing for – it’s power, the power to control what the hoi polloi say and do, and that’s for sure and for certain.

And, if you live as far north as some of us do, the prospect of a few mild winters to come isn't that awful to contemplate.