Trump v. Biden: A Look at the Swing States

The election is set, and while the party conventions are some way off, both major party candidates are decided; barring some calamity, the 2024 presidential election will be a rerun of 2020, with Donald Trump facing off against Joe Biden. We know that.

On Thursday, my colleague Nick Arama informed us of a poll that dropped some really, really bad news on the Biden campaign.

If the new Fox News poll is accurate, it should be sending off warning bells to Joe Biden because there are multiple elements that indicate big trouble for him.
The first is that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over Biden in their survey. He's now up by five points in the head-to-head numbers, as well as five points ahead of Biden even when adding in the other party candidates. According to Interactive Polls this is the largest lead ever for Trump in Fox polling.

The Biden campaign is wasting no time blaming the media for their abysmal performance in the polls.

While campaigning around the country, Biden has often complained to rooms full of donors about the coverage of polls, including how often the press focuses on only on low survey numbers while ignoring more favorable ones.
The White House and the Biden campaign maintain that it’s too far out from Election Day to rely on polls, but the president has clearly shown he’s annoyed with how the press has handled surveys of voters.

If they maintain it's too far out, then why is the president annoyed? Because the polls show how poorly the campaign is being run? How oblivious to optics the Biden administration is?

Of course, while these national polls are interesting, in the end, they aren't really meaningful. That's not how we elect presidents. We elect presidents with a series of state elections, which are combined in the Electoral College. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at the swing state polls and how things stand, and do a little electoral wargaming.

Individual polls may not be all that meaningful, but averaging them all gives us trends and broad strokes, and that's what the folks at RealClearPolitics do. Their latest swing state polls have things looking pretty good for Team Trump. As of this morning:

Arizona: Trump 48, Biden 43

Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 42

Michigan: Trump 45, Biden 45

Nevada: Trump 46, Biden 44

North Carolina: Trump 49, Biden 43

Pennsylvania: Trump 45, Biden 45

Wisconsin: Trump 45, Biden 46

The website 270toWin has a fun tool with an interactive Electoral College map. So, I started with a map of the 2020 results and plugged in the swing state polls listed above. Here's what I came up with:

That would appear to give Trump a significant advantage, in that he needs only two Electoral College votes to win; but this also means he has to flip either Pennsylvania or Michigan. Michigan gives him 281 and a win; Pennsylvania, 285. But those may be tough states to flip red, even though Trump did so in 2016.

It appears less likely, but if Glenn Youngkin could deliver Virginia into the GOP column, that would also give Trump a win, with 278.

Of course, if we assume Georgia is in play:

If Georgia somehow went blue, then Trump must grab Pennsylvania. In this scenario, whoever gets John Fetterman's home state wins.

This, as of this day, gives Trump some specific priorities: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

It's early in the game. It's far from certain that Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee; his mental and physical deterioration just becomes more and more obvious by the day. Team Trump has the easier task: Hit Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and build on what they already have.

It's a long way to the election. But this kind of informal prognosticating can be fun. Stay tuned for more wargaming and commentary on this big election year, and by all means, for even more on the spot with the news that's hot, consider upgrading to a VIP account. VIP status will open all this great election coverage and much more not only here at RedState but also all of our sister sites in Townhall Media: PJ Media, Twitchy, Hot Air, Bearing Arms, and Townhall.com. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for a 50% discount.