Apologies in advance for using a tired metaphor, but it's time to talk about the good, the bad, and the ugly of Tuesday's elections in Florida and Wisconsin. Republicans had a lot on the line in the three big races, and while the results were a mixed bag for the GOP, there are some solid lessons learned that can inform on how to run future races. And maybe also a little bit about things to avoid.
The good, of course, is that Republicans held the congressional seats that had been vacated by Matt Gaetz in FL-1 and Mike Waltz in FL-6, thus restoring two votes to the GOP's razor-thin majority in the U.S. House of Representatives; it now sits at 220-213, with two seats still open due to the recent deaths of Democrat Reps. Sylvester Turner and Raúl M. Grijalva.
Going into Tuesday, there was some concern about the FL-6 race that pitted Trump-endorsed Republican Randy Fine against Democrat Josh Weil. It was a district that Trump won in 2024 by 30 percent, but Weil raised gobs of money, and that was cause for concern. No one really thought Fine would lose in a +30 R district, and it looks like he's going to end up beating Weil by 15 percent.
Final numbers are looking remarkably similar over in FL-1, where Republican Jimmy Patronis beat his Democrat opponent, Gay Valimont, by nearly 15 percent. The thing with this race, though, is that Trump won it by 33 percent, and there was no talk beforehand of it being anything other than a total blowout by Patronis, which didn't exactly happen.
MORE: Breaking: Republican Randy Fine Wins Special Election in FL-6
New: Winner Declared in Special Election for Florida's First Congressional District
The other very good news is that Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment to enshrine the state's 2011 voter ID law into the state Constitution. And it wasn't particularly close, with the amendment passing by 25 points. Let's stick a pin in this and revisit it in a minute because Wisconsinites were sending some mixed signals with this vote.
The bad, of course, is that the uber-lefty Susan Crawford beat conservative Brad Schimel to fill the open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Republicans poured money into Schimel's campaign, and Elon Musk held a last-minute rally, but Crawford ultimately prevailed, winning by 10 percent. That's a much bigger margin than expected in a state that Trump won by less than one percent.
Finally, the ugly. There's no easy way to say it: Elon Musk's presence in Wisconsin may not have been a good thing. And there is some polling to back up that claim:
2 takeaways from Tuesday:
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 2, 2025
1. "If you are Republican candidate running in a swing state, you don't want Elon Musk anywhere near you... He is political poison!"
2. BIG Dem swings in very red FL-1/FL-6 look a lot like KS-4 in 2017, which foreshadowed big Dem gains in 2018. pic.twitter.com/2etAegZ0Ev
We've got to face facts here — Elon Musk may be killing it with DOGE, but that's not necessarily going to translate into votes for candidates. He's great at a rally, no question, but rallies are one thing, and getting out the vote is another. This could put Republicans in a difficult situation, as Musk-funded PACs pour much-needed resources into campaigns, and that may come with some conditions (see: rally appearances).
There were some whispers Wednesday morning that President Trump was ready to have Elon wrap up his DOGE duties and return to his business ventures (which was always going to happen). Karoline Leavitt said the rumor was "garbage," but this has a similar feel to when Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy came out in favor of H-1B visas, causing the Trump team some headaches. Ramaswamy soon left DOGE, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Musk take a step or two back from being the public face of so many different things.
Bottom line: it would be careless of the GOP not to reevaluate Musk's role on the campaign trail as Democrats savor their victory in Wisconsin. The midterms are on their way, and the left has proven they're more than happy to make Elon Musk their public enemy no. 1. Some voters will be sympathetic to that, and some won't.
As for lessons learned, turnout when Donald Trump isn't on the ballot is going to be a huge problem for the GOP, which was proven in both the Florida and Wisconsin elections. Remember how we all loved seeing those arrows on maps showing so many districts shifting to the right after the 2024 presidential election? Well, some of them are now shifting the other way. Voter registration and good candidate recruiting have got to be top priorities for Republicans ... STAT.
Another lesson? Own Voter ID. Wisconsin proved that voters might vote for a lefty, but they want fair elections. It's a strange combination, but is opportunity galore for the right. Make Democrats explain why voters shouldn't have to prove their identity — make them own that.
With the midterms on the horizon, Tuesday’s results were a mixed bag, but the roadmap is clear: Sharpen the message, turn out the base, and make Democrats answer for their unpopular positions. The opportunity is there — Republicans just need to seize it.
