An Azerbaijan Airlines crashed Wednesday at the Aqtau Airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan; 28 of the 67 passengers and crew aboard are known to have survived; the circumstances of the crash indicate the aircraft suffered fatal damage as the result of a Russian surface-to-air missile.
Azerbaijan Airlines JS-8243 left Baku International Airport at 7:55 local time en route to Grozny Airport in Russia's Chechen Republic. The flight lasted just over an hour and was to arrive at 8:03 local time.
Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft… pic.twitter.com/rM1Q0jmMPt
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
As the aircraft approached Grozny, its navigation was "exposed to strong GPS jamming and spoofing." Due to fog in Grozny, the plane was diverted to Makhachkala’s Uytash Airport in Dagestan, Russia, which is 95 miles east of Grozny.
Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft… pic.twitter.com/rM1Q0jmMPt
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
Grozny was under drone attack on Wednesday as JS-8243 approached.
The drone attack on Grozny continues, which began this morning.
— Sota News (@sotanews) December 25, 2024
Earlier, citing fog, a passenger flight from Baku to Grozny was redirected to Aktau. As a result, the plane crashed in Kazakhstan. pic.twitter.com/ERsRyqov68
GPS spoofing and jamming have been used by the Russians before, and it would be a logical part of any defense against long-range drone attack; see Is Russia's Baltic GPS Jamming Harassment or a Military Test Bed?
Sometime after the plane was diverted to Uytash Airport, it was again diverted to Aqtau Airport. No reason was given, but the same ground fog that scrubbed the Grozny landing was probably in effect at Uytash Airport.
Shortly after the aircraft crossed the coast of the Caspian Sea, the crew reported a heavy impact on the fuselage. That report was quickly followed by the aircraft signaling an emergency by sending a 7700 transponder code and requesting permission for an emergency landing because of failure of control systems. This is the radar plot and it does look like something is wrong.
What just happened to Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243?? Flight Radar showed it having an emergency squawk 7700. The flight was erratic in altitude. #azerbaijan #planewatchers #avgeek #flightemergency pic.twitter.com/K6ApRsaPvK
— Zach Shapiro (@zrs70) December 25, 2024
As the plane arrived at Aqtau Airport, it was caught on video.
Breaking: Kazakhstan Plane Crash: Final Moments Revealed... 14 Survive
— Luan News (@luanstudios_tv) December 25, 2024
🔹 Flight Details: Azerbaijan Airlines, Embraer 190 (Flight J2-8243)
🔹 Route: Baku (Azerbaijan) → Grozny (Russia), diverted to Aktau (Kazakhstan) due to fog
🔹 Passengers Onboard: 72 (5 crew members) pic.twitter.com/Hat1pABB4S
🚨BREAKING: AZERBAIJAN AIRLINES SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AFTER KAZAKHSTAN CRASH
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) December 25, 2024
Following the tragic crash of Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended its Baku-Grozny and Baku-Makhachkala routes pending investigation.
The Embraer E190 aircraft, en route… https://t.co/z5nL5wodkO pic.twitter.com/Sv608L4Z9i
Initially, the Russian equivalent of the FAA floated the story that the aircraft was the victim of a birdstrike. The wreckage and survivor testimony quickly shot that story down.
The fuselage skin showed puncture damage on the port side and exit damage on the starboard side with an upward angle.
/4. The tail section of the plane survived the crash and witnesses were able to capture on videos damage on the tail that is typical of fragments from air defense missiles. pic.twitter.com/ds1v78je5u
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024
/11. More videos of the shrapnel damage to the fuselage of the crashed Embraer E190 appeared in the media. pic.twitter.com/SZrjiLvwjS
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024
The Russian fallback position became an engine explosion that led to a loss of control. But as you can see on the crash video, both engines appear perfectly intact.
Because some passengers survived, we have testimony and video from inside the aircraft.
/10. Video from the Embraer E190 cabin during the flight before the crash.
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024
A life jacket pierced by shrapnel. pic.twitter.com/RTzBuQehlD
/12. Video from inside of the plane filmed before the crash. Some of the damage caused by shrapnel is visibl pic.twitter.com/5l4yYjAPqJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024
Now the Russians have moved on to two alternative theories. First, Flight JS-8243 was hit by a Ukrainian drone. This seems unlikely due to the location (over the Caspian Sea) and the speed and altitude differential between JS-8243 and what we know about long-range Ukrainian drones. The second is a play on the "she was wearing her skirt too damned short" excuse for the invasion of Ukraine. In this one, yes, Russia shot down JS-8243, but it was Ukraine's fault because it was attacking a Russian airport.
The indirect involvement hypothesis is being pushed by Rybar, which appears to be blaming an anti-aircraft missile (presumably a Russian one striking down Ukrainian UAVs) for the plane crashhttps://t.co/Q2NSSzcVdY
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) December 25, 2024
Don't look for a detailed investigation of this incident.
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