Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's flight-to-exile airplane disappeared from radar shortly after it departed Damascus International Airport. A Russian-built Il-76 with Assad and his entourage on board took off as opposition forces were entering Damascus, and his high command was negotiating the surrender of the city.

BREAKING — HTS says Assad regime’s heads of intelligence branches in Damascus have completed their arrangements with Syrian rebels to control the capital.

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 7, 2024

BREAKING: Rebels have just taken control of Damascus Airport. Reports also claim that the Brodcasting Authority was taken over as well, and rebels are preparing to make a statement announcing the end of Assad’s rule. pic.twitter.com/0U4EjVwZSC

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 8, 2024

The flight was headed toward the UAE, but it suddenly disappeared from radar as it approached Homs, some 100 miles from Damascus.

Breaking news! Airplane carrying Assad out of Damascus appears to crashed near Homs pic.twitter.com/kOREnLbYjq

— Mr.Pupan (@HarisHarisba) December 8, 2024

The final moments of the flight look like this.

This is the 3D route for Assad's airplane.

We don't yet know if he crashed, but this looks REALLY bad for him.

Fingers crossed. pic.twitter.com/qQlY6pnMT9

— 𝗡𝗶𝗼𝗵 𝗕𝗲𝗿𝗴 ♛ ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) December 8, 2024

Main Points

Al-Assad has not been seen since reports he was fleeing Damascus. 

Opposition forces now occupy Damascus.

The plane believed to carry Bashar al-Assad vanished from radar.

There are no confirmed reports of a crash at this time.

Opposition forces are claiming credit for shooting the plane down, but there is no evidence to support this.

The site of the crash is within easy range of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles protecting key Russian facilities.

The explanations available for the rapid descent and sudden disappearance are very limited. A shootdown or mechanical failure is the most likely, but one can't rule out other scenarios, such as low-altitude egress or landing on an emergency airstrip. However, the alternatives seem unlikely. The emergency landing scenario would put him behind enemy lines.

While it is always possible that al-Assad will surface in exile somewhere, right now, it is looking like his regime ended in a plane crash while he was trying to escape.