Multiple sources report that a military coup may be underway in Damascus. The Republican Guard is reportedly engaged in combat with a division of the Syrian Army. Ordinarily, the Republican Guard is the regime protection force, but the situation is so confused in Syria that it is hard to tell. Speculation has identified the coup leader as a member of Assad's inner circle.

Interesting, coup underway in Damascus by Hassan Louka, Assad’s chief of General Security and Assad’s point man on moving Syria out of Irans orbit and more towards the Russians. Possibly a Russian sponsored coup. pic.twitter.com/449OmW9O0g

— RomanMeehar (@MeeharRoman) November 30, 2024

Take that for what it's worth.

Syrian state television has just gone off the air.

Reports of coup underway in Damascus. Gunfire can be heard in this video. Game changing events unfolding if true. Assad remains out of the country. pic.twitter.com/KCw5nLisrc

— Firas Maksad (@FirasMaksad) November 30, 2024

🇸🇾 There are reports of a possible coup attempt taking place in Damascus, Syria. The Syrian Republican Guard and the 4th Division of the Syrian Arab Army (Assad’s forces) are reportedly clashing in the capital of Syria, more specifically in the Kafr Sousa district of Damascus.… pic.twitter.com/utzDEk3U0n

— Conflict Dispatch (@ConflictDISP) November 30, 2024

This is just another in a series of signs that the Bashar al-Assad regime is in its last days.

Yesterday, Aleppo fell after a 72-hour offensive; see Assad Loyalists and Russians in Headlong Retreat After Surprise Rebel Offensive on Aleppo. To put it in context, Aleppo has been controlled by Assad's forces since 2011. Today, two other major Syrian cities have fallen to the insurgents: Hamah and Homs.

If reports are accurate on the fall of Hamah, opposition forces are already halfway to Damascus. Assad’s best forces are supposedly in Damascus, but giving up so many defensible points along the way is not a viable long-term strategy. It’s inviting a siege with the city cutoff. pic.twitter.com/IEfcQX4v83

— John Jackson (@hissgoescobra) November 30, 2024

If you want to know more or less how this soccer match ends here's a map.

If rebels take Homs & then Al-Qusayr just south of it they'll have split the regime in Damascus from its Alawite strongholds along the coast. pic.twitter.com/zypSoheeub

— Druze Saher (@DruzeSaher32) November 30, 2024

Adding further fuel to the fire is the fact that Assad and his family were in Moscow while Putin attended a conference in Kazakhstan. Many members of Assad's family are reportedly holed up in the UAE.

Well placed sources say #Assad remains in #Moscow, while much of his family & close allies are also abroad — in #Russia & the #UAE.

That adds a stunning extra angle to the collapse of northern #Syria.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) November 30, 2024

There is a report of a plane arriving from Moscow overnight, which some are taking to mean Assad has returned. I find it very unlikely that Assad would return to Syria under these circumstances.

A Russian jet lands in Damascus tonight. Likely Syrian President Assad returned from Moscow pic.twitter.com/HaI73La78Q

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 30, 2024

Bottom Line

The insurgent breakthrough toward Damascus and the inability of the Syrian Army to rally is not a good sign for Assad. The initial interpretation of the offensive taking place while Assad was out of the country as a sign that the regime was caught flatfooted now seems, to me, to be in error. Assad was in Moscow with his family while Russia's foreign minister and Putin were out of the country. So, it clearly was not a state visit. It is beginning to look like he knew what was coming. If a coup is underway in Damascus, there is a high probability that it will succeed, and an immediate attempt will be made to reach an arrangement with the insurgents. What happens then is anyone's guess.