The CEO of Germany's leading defense industry corporation escaped assassination by Russian operatives earlier this year thanks to the timely cooperation and information sharing between the United States and Germany. Armin Papperger, the head of the massive Rheinmetall conglomerate, was targeted for death by Russia because of his company's central role in arming and supplying Ukraine.
According to reports, US intelligence uncovered the plot and enabled German counterintelligence and security forces to put Papperger under close protection. The missing part of this story is the German GSG9 hauling the Russian assets off to prison. The assassination operatives and planners are still at large.
This episode is not a one-off. It is part of a campaign of hybrid warfare that is being actively waged against the West by Russia as part of its campaign to eradicate Ukraine.
Hybrid warfare involves blending kinetic and non-kinetic actions to exploit an enemy's weaknesses without crossing the line between peace and war. It blends kinetic operations carried out by special operations forces or local proxies with cyberattacks, economic pressure, fake news, and even social media manipulation. The goal is to confuse and weaken an opponent without a clear-cut declaration of war. Imagine using special forces alongside hackers and social media influencers to disrupt a nation from within, all while staying below the radar of a full-blown military response. In the current case, Russia wants to keep NATO off balance and damage critical assets, but it doesn't want to tickle that fine line between painful annoyance and an Article 5 consultation.
There are two main characteristics of hybrid warfare. First, the level of violence must fall below the threshold the adversary would consider an attack requiring military response. Second, the source of the attack must remain ambiguous and difficult to definitively attribute to a foreign actor. These two factors make it difficult for a state to develop a coherent response to various lines of attack.
For the past months, the Russian OPTEMPO of hybrid operations in Germany has accelerated:
Hybrid attacks from russia in Germany:
— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) July 11, 2024
🇷🇺 Cyber attack on the Bundestag
🇷🇺 FSB operation at the BND
🇷🇺 Wiretapping operation against the Bundeswehr
🇷🇺 Drone pursues Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Baerbock
🇷🇺 Fire at Diehl in Berlin
🇷🇺 Explosives found on German NATO… https://t.co/F1E866vk6x
I've annotated the attacks for your convenience.
Cyber attack on the Bundestag
FSB operation at the BND — April 2024Wiretapping operation against the Bundeswehr — March 2024
Drone pursues Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Baerbock — February 2024
Fire at Diehl in Berlin — May 2024
Explosives found on German NATO pipeline — November 2023
Cyberattack on SPD and CDU party headquarters — January 2023/June 2024
Murder plans against Rheinmetall CEO — July 2024
It isn't only Germany feeling the impact.
EUROPE-WIDE
A senior NATO official said today that Russia's sabotage campaign across Europe is a "more concerted, more aggressive effort, than what we’ve seen certainly since the Cold War...we’re seeing sabotage, assassination plots, arson — real things that have cost human lives.”
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) July 9, 2024
While many assumed it was just the Religion of Peace being mostly peaceful that prompted a major increase in force protection levels two weeks ago, it was actually prompted by intelligence of a Russian terror attack.
BACKGROUND: US Bases in Europe Put on High Readiness to Deal With Intelligence Warning of Terror Attack – RedState
There have been a couple of great articles on the breadth and depth of Russia's hybrid war in Europe. For an overview, I recommend Killings, coups and chaos: inside Putin’s secret spy war on Europe from The Times and Exclusive | Europe Sees Signs of Russian Sabotage but Hesitates to Blame Kremlin from the Wall Street Journal. Below are some specific cases.
In May, Spanish media revealed a major counterfeit ring that was run in Russia under the protection of the FSB.
"And what agreements were those?", we were interested. "We couldn't sell or distribute counterfeit money in Russia!" the smuggler clarifies. "That was the main rule and we did not comply with it. The task was to send fake euros to third countries and, in particular, to Russia's adversaries. Our FSB chiefs said that any damage to the economies of countries hostile to the homeland was a great advantage for the Kremlin." The matter becomes even more interesting when he then tells us that part of these banknotes have already been introduced in Spain and other European countries.
UNITED KINGDOM
The UK has become something of a playground for Russian intelligence services. The UK recently expelled the Russian Defense Attache for running sabotage groups.
British officials are “increasingly concerned about growing links between the Russian intelligence services and proxy groups to conduct cyberattacks,” a senior intelligence chief warned on Tuesday.
...
In the past few months, police officers have arrested the suspected members of two groups allegedly directed by Russian spies to carry out hostile activities in Britain.
There are ongoing cases against six Bulgarian nationals who are accused of conspiring to commit espionage activities on behalf of Russia, as well as against a group of four British nationals charged in connection to an arson attack against a Ukrainian logistics company in London.
NORWAY
The Svalbard archipelago has a heavy Russian presence.
Russia's next target: Norway's Svalbard Archipelago
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 2, 2024
Norway's demilitarized Svalbard archipelago could be Russia's next target, as its ambiguous NATO status may allow Moscow to test the Alliance without triggering Article 5. 1/3https://t.co/DuZAGXDSov
Russia has warned Norway not to interfere with its rights and prerogatives on this part of Norwegian territory; see Deputy Prime Minister sends warning to Oslo: Russian rights at Svalbard must not be challenged. If you are wondering how this qualifies as hybrid warfare, it creates a claim by the Russians to interfere in Norwegian territory and complicates Norway's military and diplomatic planning, keeping the government off balance.
Nothing to see here. Just perfectly normal russian bottom trawling back and forth repeatedly just on top of the main fiber optic internet cable between Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland. From NRK. pic.twitter.com/Cbc77B5oP5
— Per-Erik Schulze (@PerErikSchulze) May 26, 2024
In May, Norway rolled up a Russian sabotage network in Western Norway; see Norway's special services exposed the mass work of Russian spies and saboteurs.
POLAND
Poland is possibly more of a battleground than Germany because of its very aggressive support of Ukraine. Poland has been the subject of repeated rumors on social media that it has secret plans to invade Ukraine and annex the western half of that country; see Why Russia Keeps Insisting That Poland Is Preparing to Partition Ukraine.
Polish authorities have accused Russia of complicity in the May 2024 fire that destroyed Warsaw's largest shopping center; see Russia “likely” behind fire that destroyed Warsaw shopping centre, says Tusk.
#Poland
— JS (@JS_nws) May 12, 2024
A large-scale fire has engulfed a shopping center in Warsaw, - media.
The Marywilska 44 shopping center is on fire. By the time the firefighters arrived, the fire had already engulfed the entire territory of the complex. The roof of the building partially collapsed. pic.twitter.com/aOiV3ogfnX
In May, Polish intelligence agents arrested nine members of a Russian espionage/sabotage group.
The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
"We currently have nine suspects detained and indicted, who have been directly implicated in the name of Russian (intelligence) services in acts of sabotage in Poland," Tusk said.
The individuals were Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens. Tusk also suggested they may have been recruited from criminal circles.
Acts of alleged sabotage include "beatings, arson, and attempted arson," not just in Poland but also in Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly even Sweden. Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania.
By June, Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak announced that it had arrested 18 people engaged in sabotage operations on behalf of Russia or Belarus.
Poland has also been the target of illegal immigration used as hybrid warfare:
Today's feel good video. Illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa arrive at the Belarus-Poland border.
— David Atherton (@DaveAtherton20) July 13, 2024
Attacking the fences & barbed wire, the water cannon literally blows them away. pic.twitter.com/iaRC7ncQgi
🇵🇱border and the crowd of “peaceful” migrants pushed in by 🇷🇺! “as the security forces picked them up they saw what appeared to be a tree branch with a steel blade taped to the top”!That day a 21 years old border guard got killed! 😡! https://t.co/ZZT5eAFUJk pic.twitter.com/q8V9TeArYy
— Clown (@DanaSLJL) July 13, 2024
These migrants are shepherded through Russia and Belarus and pointed at the Polish border. The pressure has caused Poland to deploy its army to protect its frontier. The government is taking every possible action to stem the tide:
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 13, 2024
Poland’s Parliament votes overwhelmingly in favor of a new law that allows soldiers, border guards and police officers to fire live ammunition when stopping attempts by migrants to storm the border.
401 MPs voted for the new law, 17 against
🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/sUCZ8VMKvQ
Russian propaganda is painting the government as migrant-friendly:
Donald Tusk Is Destroying Poland With Migrants & LGBTQ Warfare pic.twitter.com/quLye3ndH9
— Red Ice TV 🐗 (@redicetv) June 26, 2024
FINLAND
Finland has also had Russia use migrants transported through Russia and aimed at Finland to try to destabilize that country.
BACKGROUND: Finland Shuts Border Crossings to Stem Wave of Illegal Immigration Originating in Russia – RedState
FRANCE
Paris is the venue for the 2024 Summer Games, and the Russians are actively involved in manufacturing bogus terrorism threats, among other things, to undermine the games.
The report tracks what it calls “prolific Russian influence actors” that last summer began focusing on disparaging the 2024 Olympic Games and French President Emmanuel Macron, including by posting a bogus documentary featuring a deepfake of actor Tom Cruise.
“These ongoing Russian influence operations have two central objectives: to denigrate the reputation of the [International Olympic Committee] on the world stage; and to create the expectation of violence breaking out in Paris during the 2024 Summer Olympic Games,” the report says.
Again, this looks like small potatoes, but it unsettles people throughout Europe with a fear of terrorism and could cause some level of economic harm by driving down event attendance.
BALTIC REGION
The Russians have begun to push aggressively into the Baltic Region to disrupt communications, increase tensions, and create potential casus belli:
Baltic sea effectively does not have international waters. It is small and narrow and thus all of it is covered by exclusive economic zone of neighbouring states. Russia only has a claim to small part around the occupied Kaliningrad. pic.twitter.com/RQiCGtgPrl
— HaFu (@HaFuChalice) June 29, 2024
Russia is engaged in spoofing navigational GPS to the extent that Tartu Airport in Estonia was shut down; see Is Russia's Baltic GPS Jamming Harassment or a Military Test Bed? It published and retracted a Foreign Ministry policy unilaterally redrawing Russia's borders with Estonia and Finland; see What's Up With Putin's Russia Trying to Redraw Its Borders With Finland and the Baltic States?
In addition to the mindf.. uh, mind games Russia is playing it is actively involved in damaging trans-Baltic infrastructure.
Finnish investigators are accusing a Chinese ship of disabling an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia and damaging two undersea telecommunications cables on October 8. The Balticconnector pipeline is a 94-mile-long pipeline that connects Finland's national gas grid with a major underground gas storage facility in Latvia.
BACKGROUND: Chinese Container Ship Suspected of Deliberately Damaging Estonia-Finland Gas Pipeline
This use of a Chinese ship to carry out a hybrid warfare mission is a perfect example of a deniable proxy operation that not only causes economic harm, but also sends a message to all concerned that strategic assets can be destroyed.
The use of a Chinese ship to attack strategic infrastructure is the most "in your face" act so far, but there are hints that more is coming.
At sea too, Russia is hard at its disruptive work. Moscow’s “ghost fleet” of vessels with mystery owners, suspect insurance, and registrations in places like Eswatini (which, as a landlocked country, is not a traditional seafaring nation) has been particularly busy with sanctions evasion and espionage around the Baltic island of Gotland, long recognised as a key target because of its importance for controlling sea and air traffic in the region.
Again, the problem might look like a local one – but there are immediate costs for us all in the form of disruption and higher shipping costs and insurance rates. There are also the long-term implications of what Russia may be preparing to do.
And this last weekend, vessels in the region reported a wave of GPS outages, indicating that disruptive electronic warfare from Russia has stepped up a gear and is now affecting surface sea traffic. If nothing is done, the logical next step is for Moscow to attempt to block GPS for road traffic too.
With millions of navigation systems dependent on GPS location services, doing so could sow chaos on land across the region.
All of these are examples of hostile action from Russia becoming gradually normalised because nobody is willing or able to deal with it. In this way, Russia pushes the boundaries of what is acceptable, or at least accepted, by doing something that should be outrageous, and then doing it more when there is no response from the West.
At this point, take a moment and enjoy pertinent commentary from one of my favorite television series, "Mr. Inbetween."
YEMEN
The efforts aren't even confined to Europe. The flaccid US response to the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea has nearly closed that critical sea route.
What is the impact of the #Houthi attacks?
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) May 22, 2024
1️⃣Ship transits cut by 2/3
2️⃣Ship tonnage cut by 3/4
3️⃣Ship fuel & cargo emissions up due to longer sea voyages
4️⃣Container lines mark first profits since post-COVID downturn
5️⃣Russia's oil trade to Asia is up
6️⃣Tanker stocks up. https://t.co/tTuGU0HJ1r pic.twitter.com/Fu5PJC2gy4
It was revealed, probably by the Saudis, that Russia had used its new relationship with almost-BRICS member Saudi Arabia to try to send advanced arms to the Houthis. The Saudis claim to have declined.
Sponsor of terrorism: Vladimir Putin Is Trying to Arm the Houthis
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 30, 2024
US intelligence reports on Putin's attempt to arm Yemeni rebels.
The dictator has asked Saudi Arabia for permission to transfer cruise missiles to the Houthis. pic.twitter.com/Sksj0fPz3g
BOTTOM LINE
A week ago, a clip of North Dakota Governor Doug Bergum surfaced in which he said, "We're in a cold war with China, and we're actually at war with Russia; we just haven't sent troops yet." He received a lot of unfair criticism for that statement, but he was right.
RELATED: A Past Clip of Doug Burgum on Ukraine Has Resurfaced. Should It Put a Hold on VP Talk? – RedState
Russia is engaged in a very aggressive hybrid war against Europe that includes propaganda, economic attacks, cyberwarfare, and kinetic operations on the ground. That war's objectives are to increase internal divisions in European countries, damage their economies, and weaken their resolve to resist Russian demands.
In the case of Estonia, Russia is amplifying a border dispute so that it can become a plausible potential casus belli. As I've pointed out before, Estonia is a particularly tempting target for Putin because it is about 24 percent ethnic Russian. If Putin can successfully encroach on Estonia without consequences, NATO will become very unstable. See How Putin Dismembers NATO Without Firing A Shot: A Scenario From the Cold War for more details.
Europe is treating these attacks as individual data points and not as a coherent Russian destabilization campaign. As long as that goes on, Russia is winning this hybrid war, and it has no reason to stop.
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