The House GOP Caucus seems on the verge of open civil war as the House Rules Committee debates the rule for voting on the foreign aid bills Speaker Johnson has pledged to bring to a vote on Saturday.

BACKGROUND: Speaker Johnson Establishes Rules for Israel/Taiwan/Ukraine Aid Bills; Vote Set for Saturday

There are two key issues underlying the perhaps irrevocable break between the House GOP caucus and the Freedom Caucus.

The first issue is that Speaker Johnson will pass a rule to govern the vote with Democrat votes. The partisan split on the rules committee is nine Republicans and four Democrats. Johnson's problem is that three Republican members have declared their opposition to Johnson's plan. These are reported to be Thomas Massie (KY), Greg Norman (OK), and Chip Roy (TX). This means for the first time in the history of the Rules Committee, the Speaker will have to use votes from the opposition party to pass his legislative program.

After perusing about 700 Rules Committee reports... 🥁

It would appear that never in recorded history* have minority members of the Rules Committee voted in favour of reporting a rule to make up for majority votes against it.

* – i.e., since 1995 🙂https://t.co/hBEXcc96P0

— ringwiss (@ringwiss) April 18, 2024

The sticking point for the opponents of the proposed rule is that they believe the only way they will get a border security bill is if they attach it to the Ukraine military aid bill. Even though Johnson is offering a version of H.R. 2, the stillborn GOP border security bill, everyone knows that bill will barely pass the House and will never see the light of day in the Senate. As an aside, I think this argument is disingenuous to the point of dishonesty. The House hasn't attempted to tie border security to any other bill since the new Congress began in January. The same logic seems to apply to tying border security to Israel and Taiwan foreign aid as it does tying it to Ukraine. Running up the civilian body count in a foreign country to try to score domestic political points is not something I'd care to boast about.

The second issue is changing the vote threshold for considering a "motion to vacate the chair." Kevin McCarthy made the worst sort of Faustian bargain when he agreed, as the price of keeping his job as Speaker, to a rule change that allowed any single member to call for a vote on replacing the Speaker. This decision came back to bite McCarthy when eight Republicans teamed up with the Democrat bloc to remove him.

To say that some members are going nuts is an understatement.

🚨BREAKING: MTG speaks to press about Speaker Johnson quietly working to change Motion to Vacate rules

pic.twitter.com/TgF1QIQ9ES

— AJ Huber (@Huberton) April 18, 2024

Mike Johnson, the constitutional attorney, has turned into a mini tyrant.

He’s using backroom deals with Democrats to change the rules of Congress to continue clinging onto his power while passing Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer’s wishlist.

We need a new Speaker!! pic.twitter.com/NhTwVJujQN

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) April 18, 2024

Just as in a marriage, you never want to say anything you can't take back; I think the Freedom Caucus has done just that. The social media commentary about Johnson from some prominent caucus members and their allies has probably burned any bridges between them and Johnson and the rest of the House GOP. This Freedom Caucus memo equates Johnson's methodology to Nancy Pelosi.

👀 House Freedom Caucus has sent out a memo to all GOP offices urging members to vote against the rule on foreign aid package

Likens Johnson’s governing to Boehner and Pelosi pic.twitter.com/Ola7wMiU86

— Mica Soellner (@MicaSoellnerDC) April 18, 2024

Allegedly, Johnson was confronted in public by Wisconsin Republican Derrick Van Orden, who called Johnson "tubby."

No one in the group (Gaetz, Boebert, Burchett, Higgins, Donalds et al.) were threatening Johnson with an MTV.

Van Orden seemed to escalate things dramatically…

— Julie Tsirkin (@JulieNBCNews) April 18, 2024

(In fairness, Van Orden is now saying he called Matt Gaetz "tubby" after Gaetz called him a "squish." He also said that his comment about the motion to vacate was a challenge to Greene and others who threatened a vote. Either way, it's ugly, and the scars from this will remain.)

Just spoke to Derrick Van Orden. He tells me he was calling Matt Gaetz “tubby” — not Speaker Johnson — after Gaetz called DVO a “squish”

Says he saw group around Johnson & joined the group to support Johnson.

Called Gaetz a bully & said only way to stop bully is to “push back” https://t.co/mWjdHxZWdP

— Lawrence Andrea (@lawrencegandrea) April 18, 2024

Van Orden on those threatening motion to vacate: “They’re not serious legislators.”

He said his encouragement this AM was to “call their bluff. Like, stop it.”

— Lawrence Andrea (@lawrencegandrea) April 18, 2024

To give a flavor for the rhetoric, Matt Gaetz appeared nearly Churchillian.

News -- Matt Gaetz tells us he engaged in a 'tense' conversation with Johnson, who didn't rule out changing motion to vacate now in upcoming rule

(Also got into it with Rep. Van Orden who was daring them to move ahead with vacate vote - which Gaetz doesn't support w Johnson) pic.twitter.com/VyBdpSlN9y

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 18, 2024

I think a significant Rubicon has been crossed today. Three members of the House Rules Committee are threatening the Speaker with a motion to vacate. That motion isn't going anywhere because, unlike with McCarthy, the Democrats will vote to support Johnson.

The Rules Committee—typically stacked with leadership loyalists—has Republicans hostile to Speaker Johnson. One GOP member wants him to resign and two others are also poised to oppose the rule for foreign aid.

But he hasn’t tried to reshape the panel:https://t.co/b8ICnFWUrU

— Haley Byrd Wilt (@byrdinator) April 18, 2024

Still, this revolt by members admitted to the House's sanctum sanctorum will not be forgotten and probably will not be forgiven.

Johnson was the architect of the deal that gave the Freedom Caucus three seats on the Rules Committee. After this fiasco, there is a better-than-even chance that Johnson will return to tradition and replace them with loyalists.

FLASHBACK: In Jan. 2023, Mike Johnson was the LEAD SPONSOR of the resolution appointing @RepChipRoy, @RepThomasMassie, & @RepRalphNorman to the Rules Committee, with the understanding they would be the conservative conscious of the conference and hold the Speaker accountable. https://t.co/Tb7s4bc99g pic.twitter.com/q4UDlYho5y

— Bradley Jaye (@bradleyajaye) April 18, 2024

In the end, I fear that the Freedom Caucus may have made itself irrelevant to policy development and superfluous as a voting bloc as even its members are not united on the hardline stand taken today.