Poll: Majority of Voters in Four Key Swing States Support Confirming Kavanaugh

By Sarah Rumpf | 5:23 PM on July 23, 2018

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FILE - This Jan. 25, 2012, file photo, shows the U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington. The Supreme Court enters its final week of work before a long summer hiatus with action expected on the Trump administration’s travel ban and a decision due in a separation of church and state case that arises from a Missouri church playground. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

President Donald Trump’s nomination of D.C. Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh to fill retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy’s seat on the Supreme Court has Democrats in a frothing fury, but their fever doesn’t appear to be contagious among actual voters. A recent poll in four key states that voted for Trump in 2016 and are represented by Democrats in the Senate found strong support for Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Court.

The poll by North Star Opinion Research was conducted in Alabama, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia from July 10 to 16, 2018, of 500 eligible registered voters in North Dakota, and 600 registered voters in the other three states, with a mix of landlines and cell phones and the samples balanced for demographics (the polling methodology is explained in more detail at the end of this memo).

When asked if Kavanaugh should be confirmed, North Dakota voters agreed 60 to 22 precent, West Virginia voters 55 to 30 percent, Alabama voters 54 to 30 percent, and Indiana voters 52 to 34 percent. These numbers held steady among independent voters: 60 to 18 percent in North Dakota, 59 to 23 percent in West Virginia, 54 to 30 percent in Alabama, and 48 to 34 percent in Indiana.

In support of Kavanaugh’s nomination, the Judicial Crisis Network is running television ads to encourage the Democrat Senators in each of these states to vote yes. The ads, embedded below, target Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, all of whom are running for re-election this year, as well as Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, who became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alabama since 1992 when he defeated the scandal-plagued Roy Moore last December.

According to a press release from the Judicial Crisis Network, the ad buy for these four ads is $1.5 million, making their total ad buy in support of Kavanaugh’s confirmation $4.5 million.