New Swing State Polling Data and Important Data Point to Big Trouble for Harris

There are some more interesting data points out that have to make the Democrats pretty nervous when it comes to Kamala Harris' chances.

First, there's more positive polling from Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group. I've been trying to look at the historically more accurate polls like that, rather than the spate of polls that seem to just be push polls or D+ a lot weighted polls.

Trafalgar/Insider Advantage, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2020, has former President Trump up in every swing state by at least one, up 2.2 in Pennsylvania and Michigan.:

#Updated Electoral Map Based on Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling

🟥 Trump 296 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +2.2
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +2.2
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1.1
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +1
Georgia - 🟡 Tie
——… pic.twitter.com/7Kwhf9SlKC
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 2, 2024

That seems to add more to the reports of Trump's rise in Michigan and the worries the Democrats have been having about that state. But there's even more there that they should worry about. Atlas Intel had Trump up in five of the seven swing states including PA, and up by 3.4 in Michigan. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) warned Harris was underwater in the state.

Ipsos also has Trump up by a point in the swing states, which is pretty remarkable given their prior polling.:

#NEW BATTLEGROUND poll

🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%

(AZ/GA/MI/NV/NC/PA/WI)

Ipsos | Sept. 24-Oct. 1 | N=1,598LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

Ipsos notoriously underweights Trump. In October 2020 around this date, Ipsos had Biden +12, for context.

And now... https://t.co/pqoBKAvKA0
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024

That spells trouble for Harris.

The numbers from the NYT/Siena poll on young voters are also pretty stunning, if true. CNN's John King explained that the young voters aged 18-29 were tied, at 45 percent for Trump and Harris:

CNN: PRESIDENT TRUMP TIED WITH KAMALA AMONG MICHIGAN YOUNG VOTERS pic.twitter.com/dVEEwulYsQ
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 3, 2024

As King notes, in recent history, the young vote has tended to go to the Democrats. In 2020, Biden won that group by 61 to 37. That means Trump just closed a 24-point gap. We've seen the reports of the young moving to Trump, and that would seem to be more evidence of it.

The director at Big Data Poll, Rich Baris, said if this was even remotely true, that means Trump will win because of the tendency to understate Trump support among white and senior voters, especially in the Northern Great Lake states and Midwest:

If this is even remotely true on Election Day, Donald Trump is going to win because of the NYT and basically everyone else repeatedly understating Trump's support among white and senior voters, especially in the Northern Great Lake States and Midwest. https://t.co/f5kzCM5Ubw
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 3, 2024

You know they have to be looking at that and freaking that it's that close in Michigan with that group.

No wonder Harris keeps asking for another debate.