NEW: New Swing State Polling Brings More Good News for Trump, Big Warning for Harris

We have a couple of new polls and some more good news for former President Donald Trump.

Atlas Intel was one of the most accurate polls in 2020.

They just released their numbers for the swing states.

#Updated Electoral Map Based on @atlas_intel polling (538 rank: 2.7/3.0)

🟥 Trump 290 🏆
🟦 Harris 248
——
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +3.4
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +2.9
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1.5
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1.2
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +0.6
North Carolina - 🔵 Harris +2.4
Nevada - 🔵… https://t.co/0Z4n29uwHu pic.twitter.com/63VyDyDWl2
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 29, 2024

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 51 to 48.1 percent for Harris (Trump +2.9)

WISCONSIN: Trump 49.7 to 48.2 percent for Harris (Trump +1.5)

MICHIGAN: Trump: 50.6 to 47.2 percent for Harris (Trump +3.4)

GEORGIA: Trump: 49.6 to 49 percent for Harris (Trump +0.6)

ARIZONA: Trump: 49.8 to 48.6 percent for Harris (Trump +1.2)

NEVADA: Harris: 50.5 to 47.7 percent for Trump (Harris +2.8)

NORTH CAROLINA: Harris: 50.5 to 48.1 percent for Trump (Harris +2.4)

Now, I'm not sure I agree with that but I'm not a pollster. You would think that Michigan should be the best for Harris. By this poll, that's the best lead for Trump; If that's true, she's in deep trouble.

Also, I'm not sure I think he's behind by that much in North Carolina. I tend to think those would be the reverse. There are some weird cross tabs going on in the poll, such as Trump leading with women in PA. So, I will note a little caution there.

Perhaps most importantly, the poll has a pretty reasonable lead for Trump in the all-important Pennsylvania race.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) warned people last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign in her state shows Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan:

🚨🚨Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin: "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan. We have her under water in our polling." pic.twitter.com/hmMQEZwD94
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024

Slotkin is also behind Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in Atlas Intel Senate polling by 5.7 percent. That could be one more critical vote in the Senate. That's more support in regard to Michigan, if you take her internal poll warning.

Then add to that Trafalgar's new Pennsylvania poll. They also have Trump up, by 2.2 percent, which is close to the Atlas number:

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA poll

🔴 Trump: 47.5% (+2.2)
🔵 Harris: 45.3%@trafalgar_group pic.twitter.com/ykJCy6emYh
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 30, 2024

That has now moved the RCP average back to Trump for Pennsylvania. If you remove the clear outlier of Bloomberg/Morning Consult, which I regard as basically a nonsensical poll, that average would go up even more, as virtually all the other recent ones are tied or have Trump ahead.

Click on to enlarge:

pic.twitter.com/NZpCqFMa2w
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) September 30, 2024

Rasmussen makes the comparison to what Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton's numbers were at this time: they were both ahead, Biden at 6.3 percent and Clinton at 2.4 percent ahead: