NEW: Latest Nate Silver Model and Comments Are Making Dems Lose Their Minds

Now, I take all polls with a grain of salt.

Particularly when it comes to the "hype mania" polling for Kamala Harris. When you dive into the cross tabs, there is oversampling and things to question there. Particularly when we're supposed to believe someone who was very unpopular was now supposed to be the personification of "joy."

Also, I want to be careful about polls that tell us what we want to hear.

Bottom line? Make sure you're getting everyone you can out to vote and make it happen, whatever the polls say.

But, as I said, we were seeing stuff that was showing all the hype wasn't quite the full story, and now the numbers seem to be coming back around.

New Michigan Poll and Latest Nate Silver Forecast Are Going to Cause Dem Meltdowns

One of the people whose forecasts have been turning around more toward Trump is Nate Silver. Over the last week, there's been a big move toward Trump, which Silver said is largely because the more recent polling for Kamala Harris in swing states hasn't been great. His forecast on greater probability to win the Electoral College is now at 61.5 percent for Trump, 38.3 for Harris.

Wow.

Trump’s lead widens in Nate Silver’s model.

🔴 Trump - 62%
🔵 Harris - 38%

Trump is now a bigger favorite to win the electoral college, than Harris is to win the popular vote. pic.twitter.com/XydCzEbRih
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 6, 2024

Trump is a bigger favorite to win the Electoral College than Harris is to take the popular vote. Silver said the Electoral College gap had gotten quite bad for Harris — now there was a 20 percent chance she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

And here's my longer story on the state of the race.

The Electoral College / popular vote gap has gotten quite bad for Harris. Now a 20% chance she wins the popular vote but loses the EC.https://t.co/mHgElUsmaZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024

I'd also note that Harris's raw polling averages have DECLINED in most swing states since the start of the DNC. This data is NOT subject to the convention bounce adjustment. She's had a run of pretty mediocre state polling. pic.twitter.com/smiCFiznQW
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024

I'd also note that Harris's raw polling averages have DECLINED in most swing states since the start of the DNC. This data is NOT subject to the convention bounce adjustment. She's had a run of pretty mediocre state polling.

He also dinged Harris for not doing interviews with a variety of folks as Trump was doing, reaching out to different audiences, and he blamed her Biden people.

Honestly Harris should do more of this stuff too but her campaign is being run by people with PTSD over Biden's inability to speak extemporaneously. https://t.co/AmN63FTAfk
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 5, 2024

Of course, the problem is that they're not just averse because of Biden's issues; they're averse because of Kamala's own issues in communicating.

Most polls are looking at the national popular vote count, but Silver's model explains how that's not necessarily an accurate portrayal with the following graph.

A chart from Nate Silver. His data shows that Harris can be up 1-2 points and Trump will still win in the electoral college. He also notes in today's substack that Harris is not doing well in the swing states. pic.twitter.com/sW0QHw01G0
— Fritzi (@Fritzi3434) September 6, 2024

That explains, for example, how in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up in the RCP average with 2.1 percent in the final results in the national vote, but she lost. Biden was up in the numbers 4.5, and it was close.

But Democrats are losing their minds and attacking Silver on X. It's actually pretty funny; they didn't have a problem with him a couple of weeks ago when the model had Harris ahead.

Trump seems to have momentum, particularly after the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsement and now that he won in Michigan and North Carolina to have his name taken off the ballot there.

Pulling Out All the Stops: RFK, Jr. Urges ALL Supporters to Vote for Trump

RFK Jr had been encouraging his people to vote for Trump in the swing states. Now, he's encouraging them to vote for Trump in all states.