Democrats are crowing about a win in a special election in New York’s 19th district where the Democrat Pat Ryan has been declared the winner over the Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election.

Decision Desk HQ projects Pat Ryan (D) is the winner of the special election for U.S. House District 19 in New York, defeating Marc Molinaro (R)#DecisionMade: 11:32pm EDT

Follow more results here: https://t.co/joiucISVxD

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 24, 2022

Here was how MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki was painting it — as a big victory for the Democrats, and a shift to a more “neutral” race.

#BREAKING: @NBCNews projects Pat Ryan (D) is the winner of the special election for U.S. House District 19 in NY.@SteveKornacki on the meaning of this win – “The national political climate has shifted away from Republican advantage to a more neutral climate.” pic.twitter.com/bSH5zzTkdZ

— 11th Hour (@11thHour) August 24, 2022

Democrats are declaring it a big win on pushing abortion rights and painting Republicans as extremists, over the Republicans who were concentrating on crime and the economy.

But while the district had previously voted for Trump and the Republicans were given a slight advantage in this race, they voted for Biden in 2020 and voted for the Democrat who was vacating the seat by 11 points in 2020. So the result is not out of line with that prior result.

Additionally, Ryan was well-known and previously won election as the executive of Ulster County — the district’s main population center — in a landslide. Perhaps also important to note given the Democrats’ move to the radical left — Ryan ran from the progressive label, saying that he was supportive of increasing funding to law enforcement as a county executive. So the district likely viewed him as more of a moderate.

While Ryan did win this special election to fill out the seat, it’s only until the end of the term in January. He’s a placeholder. He’ll be running in the general election in a neighboring district. So Molinaro will be facing Josh Riley for NY-19 in November.

Now, Republicans should never assume that the wave is just going to be given to them. This race should make them sit up and not assume anything and fight all the harder because Democrats are going to throw everything they can up against the wall to win. Republicans need to tie every Democrat to Biden and how that’s taking money right out of people’s pockets. If Democrats think this is an indication that they’re going to get a pass on this, they’re sorely mistaken and missing the main point: it’s the economy, stupid. That’s always the main point. But yes, you can also throw in that it’s the Democrats who are the “extremists” — that has to be pounded home too.

Let’s rebut Kornacki with…Kornacki.

MSNBC: With 55% of Americans disapproving of Biden's job performance, there has been "no change" in Biden's approval rating in recent weeks. pic.twitter.com/sm8xyhcyUa

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 22, 2022

Democrats are also ignoring all the other signs like the generic ballot numbers, GOP being red hot in Nevada, the conservative wins in Florida, and the weight of history favoring the GOP.

New NBC News poll (registered voters)

Biden – Job performance
Approve 42%
Disapprove 55%
==>May (previous NBC poll): 42-54%

Generic ballot
GOP 47%
Dem 45%
==>May: 46-46%

Highest level of interest in midterms:
GOP 68%
Dem 66%
==> May: GOP 69%, Dem 61%

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) August 21, 2022

Democrats are making a mistake here. But we need to take advantage of that mistake. The numbers will be there for Republicans, but we have to get everyone out and make it happen.