Part of the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine was that the West wasn’t serious about the sanctions. Had they imposed sanctions early on, instead of waiting until after Russia invaded Ukraine, it might have had an effect. Even after they invaded, you still had Joe Biden, Germany, and some of the rest hesitating on dropping more severe sanctions.

Now, it looks like they may be dropping the hammer soon with what some have called the “nuclear option” of sanctions — cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system.

The last two European holdouts on utilizing that were Hungary and Germany. But Hungary just gave in.

Significant: Polish PM says Orban told him Hungary now supports disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. They were one of the main holdouts in the EU. https://t.co/DoCGaCgudS

— Trent Murray (@trent_murray) February 26, 2022

We reported earlier that the EU, including Germany, would be providing a lot of weapons including Stingers and Javelins. Germany is even sending 14 armored personnel carriers. And unlike Russia, they will be sending 10,000 tons of fuel with the weapons, a reported problem among the Russian forces.

Germany is now saying they would be amenable to cutting Russia off from SWIFT, as long as it hurt the right people – meaning Russia.

“After the shameless attack by Russia, Ukraine must be able to defend itself,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said in the emailed statement. “It has an inalienable right to self-defense.”

At the same time, the government “is working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” they said. “What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT.”

That sounds like a yes to me, albeit a conditional one, that may mean it isn’t dropping this minute while they’re working out details acceptable to them.

Zelensky has been told Europe has agreed.

.@ZelenskyyUa says Ukraine has gotten Europe to agree to cut Russia off from SWIFT. "This is an important victory. It means billions & billions in losses for Russia. That's the cost of its backstabbing invasion."
(Germany reportedly supports a "targeted" partial SWIFT cutoff) pic.twitter.com/o9pAVr3OPC

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) February 26, 2022

The EU’s foreign affairs ministers will meet virtually on Sunday to mandate that work begin to cut Russia off from the SWIFT messaging system, according to official sources https://t.co/F1JHwFFTy4 pic.twitter.com/tE6a7Rw9ci

— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) February 26, 2022

From Fox News:

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) is the main global network that allows financial institutions to send and receive information on international bank transfers.

SWIFT is incorporated and headquartered in Belgium with 26 offices across the world, providing messaging services to banks in more than 200 countries. It is overseen by the central banks of the G-10, comprised of Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland and Sweden.

Cutting access to SWIFT requires approval from the U.S., Japan, and the European Union (EU), but EU decisions require universal approval, making the holdouts all the more frustrating for leaders who wanted to hit Putin and Russia with the most severe punishments.

Then, we have to ask the question of where does Joe Biden stand on this? He had been holding out on this, blaming the Europeans. Is he on board with this? So far the Biden sanctions have been slow and largely lacking in any teeth.

His team was grilled about all the exemptions, as well as the fact that while they were claiming they were making Russia a pariah, they weren’t cutting off meetings with Russia on things like climate change. It’s a question at this point, with Biden’s sanctions being dropped so late, if it could change the equation.

But SWIFT might, depending now on when they’re going to do it and how they employ it. Putin is hitting all kinds of problems on the ground in Ukraine. With more weapons coming for the Ukrainians, those actions just might collectively put Putin back on his heels.