President Donald J. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, 45 percent to 52 percent with Likely Voters, and then among Registered Voters, Trump trailed Harris with 46 percent to her 50 percent, according to the Kaplan Strategies poll put in the field Aug. 23 through Aug. 24.

“This is a very close race, and the Trump campaign is absorbing the full-on assault of Harris campaign—and yet, Harris, with everything going in her favor, is still not pulling away from Trump,” said Doug Kaplan, whose Florida-based political consulting firm conducted the poll, full details of which may be viewed below. 

Kaplan said the poll was already in progress when environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race Aug. 23 and endorsed Trump. Still, he already had an RFK-related question in the poll to capture the impact of the anticipated endorsement.

Twenty percent of Likely Voters and Registered Voters said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if Kennedy endorsed him, and the percentages were roughly the same for those less likely, 20 percent of Likely Voters and 19 percent of Registered Voters.

“Now that it has happened, we will find out if Kennedy’s endorsement has any impact,” the pollster said.

“There is always the suspicion that Trump supporters are lying to pollsters because of the social stigma,” he said. “This is why we ask about other issues to see where the questions go when they are not tagged to Trump.”

The pollster said that one of the most powerful determinant questions is the Right Track v. Wrong Track. 

Among Likely Voters, 56 percent said the country was on the Wrong Track, 26 percent Right Track. Among Registered Voters, it was Wrong Track, 58 percent and Right Track, 26 percent.

Kaplan said inside the crosstabs, roughly 90 percent of Republicans said the country was on the Wrong Track, and only 3 percent said it was on the Right Track.

“The danger for Harris is that 55 percent of Democrats think the country is on the Right Track—and why not? They are in charge,” he said.

“Twenty-three percent of Democrats—and 59 percent of Independents—told us the country is going the wrong direction, and when they cast their ballots, they are going to vote to put the country in the right direction, not based on party loyalty.”

Kaplan: Harris pivot on immigration working

“For this poll, I asked the participants their presidential preference, and then I pressed the undecided one more time to get a more solid number,” Kaplan said.

“Among Likely Voters, 20 percent picked Trump and 27 percent picked Harris,” he said. 

“Among Registered Voters, 24 percent picked Trump and 23 percent picked Harris,” he said. 

“The biggest factor helping Harris is how she has neutralized the immigration issue,” the pollster said.

“In both polls, immigration was the fourth most important issue, or rather, only 10 percent told us it was their No. 1,” he said. 

“In 2016, and throughout Trump’s first term, restricting immigration and building a wall on the Mexican border were considered extreme positions, but now Harris has signaled her pivot,” he said. 

“In both samples, a majority support building a wall on the southern border,” Kaplan said. “52 percent of Likely Voters and 51 percent of Registered Voters. It shows Trump is winning the argument—but can he win the election on immigration? Maybe not.”

The most important issue for voters in both samples was Jobs and the Economy, 23 percent; followed by Democracy, 18 percent, and Inflation, 18 percent. After Immigration: Supreme Court, 7 percent; Abortion, 6 percent, and Social Security and Medicare, 4 percent.

Issues such as Gun Rights, the Middle East, Education, Crime, and the Environment were recorded at or below the margin of error.

Kaplan: Harris is on a winning streak

President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was behind Trump in the polls for nearly a year, so the Harris lead is really a swing from negative territory, said Kaplan. Both the Likely Voter poll, with 1,190 participants, and the Registered Voter poll, with 1,257 participants, were distilled from a larger sample to replicate Kaplan’s proprietary 2024 turnout model. Both polls carry a 2.8 percentage point margin of error.

Kaplan said that while Trump is close, the Harris lead is now outside the margin of error.

The Harris lead is also outside the deviation error in national polling created by the fact that California and New York State make up roughly 15 percent of the population, but those states are virtually uncontested by Republicans. This means Democrats run up a tally of surplus votes in those two states, which have no impact on the Electoral College but are reflected in the national polling. 

“This phenomenon means that if the Democrat is ahead of the Republican by three points, the race is essentially tied,” Kaplan said. 

“Vice President Kamala Harris is on an incredible winning streak right now,” 

“This run that Harris has been on really began the night of the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump, when she immediately stepped up to defend Biden’s performance and establish herself as his loyal deputy,” Kaplan said.

“Except for the week from the shooting at Butler, Pennsylvania, to the Republican National Convention, Harris has been on top of the news cycle,” he said. “Then, the Sunday after the GOP convention, Biden dropped out, and that rebooted the news cycle for Harris again.”

Kaplan said the poll shows despite the attacks on Minnesota Gov. Timothy Walz, Harris successfully rolled him out as a national political figure.

Forty-one percent of respondents in both samples have a Very Favorable opinion of Walz, with 37 percent Very Unfavorable.

Twenty-eight percent of respondents have a Very Favorable opinion of Trump’s running mate, Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance. Forty-four percent have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Vance.

Another gauge of the momentum behind Harris versus Trump is the interest in watching the party conventions. Fifty-seven percent of Likely Voters and 55 percent of Registered Voters watched both conventions. Seventeen percent of both samples watched only the Democratic National Convention, while 11 percent of Likely Voters and 10 percent of Registered Voters only watched the Republican National Convention. 

Kaplan: Polling both Likely Voters, Registered Voters gives a fuller portrait

In the past, Likely Voter polls were considered the gold standard, so that once pollsters got closer to Election Day, all polls would be Likely Voters.

Likely Voter polls, however, have had an abysmal record capturing the true strength of Trump support, both in 2016 and 2020, both nationally and in the individual states.

Kaplan said that keeping the sample open to Registered Voters captures those voters who only vote for Trump and have no enthusiasm for voting in elections when Trump is not on the ballot.

National Likely Voters (August 24, 2024) by Susie Moore on Scribd

National (August 24, 2024) by Susie Moore on Scribd