A new Kaplan poll of Colorado’s 4th Congressional District's June 25 GOP primary sounds alarm bells for Rep. Lauren Boebert, with the congresswoman leading the pack with the support of 32 percent of the 558 likely Republican voters in the poll conducted Feb. 24 — but, 49 percent are undecided.

“If it wasn't a seven-person race, she would be dead," said Doug Kaplan, the owner of Kaplan Strategies, who conducted the poll with a 4.2 percentage point margin of error.

The other candidates received less than 10 percent of support in the poll: Michael Lynch, 7 percent; Richard Holtorf, 3 percent; Deborah Flora, 3 percent; Peter Yu, 3 percent; Trent Leisy, 1 percent; and Chris Phelen, 1 percent. 

Lauren Boebert is the favor... by Doug Kaplan

Boebert has a 94 percent name recognition in the poll, followed by 51 percent for Lynch. No other candidates had a name recognition greater than 50 percent.

Of the respondents who chose other candidates, 33 percent said they would consider supporting Boebert, but 67 percent said they would not.

My RedState colleague Ward Clark covered Boebert's poor performance at a local straw poll in his article "Lauren Boebert's Electoral Woes Increasing Apace."

Boebert moved from her old district, the 3rd CD, to the 4th after Republican Rep. Ken Buck announced he is returning to private life — and after her personal life became an issue in the district that first elected her in 2020.

Buck, an original Tea Party partisan, opposed House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R.-Ohio)’s run for speaker of the House — a payback for Jordan passing him over for chairman of Judiciary’s Antitrust Subcommittee. However, to rank-and-file Republicans, it was an act of betrayal that made his reelection untenable.

Kaplan said there are no runoff primaries in Colorado, which is good for the congresswoman. 

“If they had runoffs, she would lose — she could never get 50 percent in that district this year —never, no doubt,” he said. “If Kevin McCarthy or someone could come in and destroy her — it could happen. The primary isn’t until June.”

In addition to the high percentage of undecided voters, Boebert needs help in the favorability numbers, said Kaplan, who ran the Gravis Marketing polls for many years before starting his new firm.

Thirty-eight percent of poll respondents have a favorable opinion of Boebert, but 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

“I’ve never seen a public primary poll like this, where the incumbent has unfavorable at minus five,” Kaplan said. 

Sixty-six percent would vote for President Donald J. Trump for the Republican nomination with 26 percent supporting former South Carolina governor N. Nikki Haley. 

“Trump is very popular in the district, but I don’t know if he could save her,” he said. “Forty-five percent said Trump’s endorsement would make a difference, but 40 percent said it wouldn’t.”

In the poll, 71 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, with 27 percent unfavorable, while 45 percent identify as MAGA, but 55 percent do not.

In other issues, 84 percent said the border crisis was not Trump’s fault, and 62 percent opposed more aid to Ukraine.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said their top issue is immigration, followed by 33 percent with the economy as their top issue, with a steep drop off of 7 percent saying foreign policy is their top issue.