In 2020, the election came down to what moderate and independent voters believed was the safer and saner bet.

It may not be what you want to hear, but more and more that is apparently what happened. Voters felt that Joe Biden was more composed and better on message. Yes, Trump is responsible for the COVID-19 vaccine that data is showing really is helping keep the rate of those dying from the disease down. Yes, Trump did lead the country to a brief economic prosperity.

But the messaging was chaotic, and people were frankly tired of the drama. A lot of that drama is media-stirred rather than Trump-stirred, but Trump didn’t help. The problem for Joe Biden now is that the voters who went with the supposed safer and saner bet are no longer sure of their vote.

The proof is in the numbers that came out earlier this week. Biden currently stands at 53 percent approval, which is too close to that 50 percent mark this early in an administration. Both Politico and The Hill, in reporting on the poll, point to COVID-19 as the primary concern, but as my colleague Brandon Morse mentioned in the above link, the economy very likely has something to do with it as well.

Not to mention the reporting we’re seeing coming out of various school districts where the independent voters are parents who are rejecting far-left critical race theory in their childrens’ schools, the teachers’ unions fighting to keep schools closed, and many other far-left cultural battles the super progressives of the Democratic Party are very vocally pushing.

More and more, the independents and moderates who went with Biden because they sought a calmer, saner political era are not getting what they wanted. And in the absence of Donald Trump – which, yes, without social media and a constant camera in front of him, he is absent – the voters who are paying attention to the world around them see the party in power as the people to blame. The Republicans benefit from Trump not being so active on the scene right now, and privately they know it.

The media is also helping the Republicans by making Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cori Bush such prominent faces of the Democratic Party. Because reporters and outlets identify so heavily with the left, they flock to this young, new generation of politicians who seek a spotlight and a platform and give them more face time with America. This is why you saw Nina Turner lose on Tuesday to a more moderate Democrat pushed by Jim Clyburn, the House majority whip. Clyburn publicly (and many in leadership privately) see the growing extremism of the progressive wing of the party as harmful to their majority and want to keep it from growing too politically powerful.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that the Biden administration spends all its time reacting to the desires of the loudest voices on the left or the criticisms of the right, and not really setting up long term plans and goals. This was further evidenced by the subsequent and extremely unconstitutional eviction moratorium extension. That power grab was so unconscionable that even the Washington Post slammed it.

If the Trump administration had ignored a direct warning from the Supreme Court, Democrats would rightfully line up to condemn the president. Mr. Biden does not get a pass on the rule of law because his heart is in the right place.

This is all out there in the open, and privately it is worrying Democrats. They are worried because they realize that they didn’t win in 2020. Donald Trump lost, but they didn’t win. They got lucky. The House remains narrowly in their hands and Biden’s polling (along with their own) remains dangerously low. Historically, the party in power doesn’t fare well in midterms, and the party in power is already hanging on by a thread as it is.

So many issues are in play, and it looks like the Republican party is quietly winning the culture war while the most progressive Democrats are loudly acting like they won. Independent and moderate voters who want the country to stay closer to moderate than extreme are quietly shifting their positions for 2020 in an effort to put a stop to the insanity they thought they were voting against in 2020. Republicans see it coming and Democrats fear its arrival.