U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is suddenly in more trouble than even the Politico may realize.

More than a year until the Congressional mid-term elections, and a group of Washington “political handicappers” say Senator Mary Landrieu’s chances of reelection have dropped to “pure toss-up.”

Why is Senator Landrieu seen as vulnerable by the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report?

While Mary Landrieu’s hasn’t exactly been a Barack Obama cheerleader, she is a Democrat in a state now firmly Republican.

“She’s being influenced by outside sources,” said University of Louisiana-Monroe political science professor Joshua Stockley.  “President Obama is not particularly popular, he’s being hit on all sides right now between Libya, IRS and controversial action within the justice department as it relates to journalists.”

The story quoted above does go on to warn that she is no stranger to challenges… but the most recent challenger was state treasurer John Kennedy, a party-hopping candidate whose ambition is about as obvious as Landrieu’s blue credentials. That was in the 2008 election, and we saw what happened in elections overall then.

About a month ago, the Politico ran this story, sourcing Public Policy Polling’s findings that Landrieu gained support after the gun control vote.

A new poll found that Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana got a boost for their support of a failed bipartisan bill that its creators said would improve background checks.

For Landrieu, 45 percent of voters said they’re more likely to support Landrieu for reelection because she voted for background checks. Twenty-five percent said they’re less likely to vote for her and the remainder were undecided or didn’t answer. Landrieu also saw a net gain in her approval rating, from 47 percent approval-45 percent disapproval in February to the current 49 percent approval-41 percent disapproval.

Louisiana has become very red over the past few years (though, to be fair, like a lot of state legislatures, Democrats became Republicans to get re-elected), and its people are getting noticeably tired of Mary. However, the New Orleans area, where her brother is the mayor, loves her. And there are pockets of support around the state that will still give her some support… which is all the more reason we need to get a solid candidate (there are a couple out there now, but I think we could do better), and we need to build the momentum now.

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