Former President Donald Trump’s legal team recently requested that the judge presiding over the Manhattan business fraud case delay the sentencing until after the election in November.
It is unclear whether Judge Juan Merchan will grant the request, but the bias he displayed against the former president throughout the trial suggests that he might not be amenable to the idea.
This raises an important question: If Trump’s sentencing takes place before the election, will it do more to help or hurt his campaign?
Trump’s lawyers sent a letter to the judge on Thursday asking for the delay.
In a letter released to the public on Thursday, former President Donald Trump's legal team asked Judge Juan Merchan for a delay in Trump's sentencing in the Manhattan trial. That sentencing is currently scheduled for September 18th. The Trump legal team claims, among other things, that a sentencing that close amounts to election interference.
Donald Trump is asking the judge in his New York hush money criminal case to delay his sentencing until after the November presidential election.
In a letter made public Thursday, a lawyer for the former president and current Republican nominee suggested that sentencing Trump as scheduled on Sept. 18 — about seven weeks before Election Day — would amount to election interference.
Trump lawyer Todd Blanche wrote that a delay would also allow Trump time to weigh next steps after the trial judge, Juan M. Merchan, is expected to rule Sept. 16 on the defense’s request to overturn the verdict and dismiss the case because of the U.S. Supreme Court’s July presidential immunity ruling.
“There is no basis for continuing to rush,” Blanche wrote.
As currently scheduled, the sentencing would occur 48 days before the November 5th election.
Trump was found guilty in May on charges of falsifying business records to conceal a 2016 payment to a former pornographic actress. The former president has maintained that the charges are false and that the charges are politically motivated.
As stated previously, Merchan has shown himself to be anything but an impartial adjudicator of the law. Indeed, the entire case against him, along with the other prosecution efforts, is motivated by a desire to influence the outcome of November’s election. In light of this, it seems likely that the former president will be sentenced before Election Day.
Related: Legal Pundits Warn of 'October Surprise' for Trump—in September
If my assessment is correct, there are several ways the sentencing could damage Trump’s chances of securing the victory.
For starters, being sentenced prior to the election could severely harm his image among undecided voters and possibly moderate Republicans. Democrats have already been using the “convicted felon” line to smear Trump. However, it is not quite clear whether it is having an impact.
Nevertheless, there could be enough voters who do not feel comfortable supporting Trump depending on the nature of the sentence. If he is sent to jail, the optics of this could turn people off from supporting him. They might have questions about whether he could take office if he is supposed to be incarcerated in jail – or even at home, which leads me to my next point.
If Trump is sentenced on September 18 as scheduled, then the subsequent legal proceedings could dominate his time and resources, making it harder for him to campaign effectively. The restrictions imposed by the court could make it impossible to hold rallies, attend debates, or engage directly with voters, which could affect his ability to appeal to the voting public.
The consequences of sentencing could also impact more than just Trump. It might have a negative “coattail effect,” hurting Republican candidates in other races. If the former president is viewed as more of a liability, then the overall GOP could suffer from the proceedings.
On the other hand, there could be several benefits to Trump being sentenced before Election Day. The most obvious outcome would be that it would further electrify his base and those who can clearly see that the justice system is being used to attack a political opponent.
This could drive even more right-leaning independents and Republicans to the polls to ensure that he wins the race. His conviction already gave him a bump in the polls when it happened. The image of Trump behind bars or having to wear an ankle bracelet would almost certainly be used to great effect by the former president and his supporters.
A sentencing would also generate massive media coverage, which would keep Trump in the spotlight. News of his incarceration would dominate news cycles and possibly drown out coverage of the Harris/Walz campaign. Trump could use this to shape the narrative and possibly attract sympathy from undecided and moderate voters who might see that the conviction and sentencing are political in nature.
Fundraising is also a factor. When Trump was convicted, he managed to raise tons of money. Even when he was arrested in the Georgia case, the mug shot was used as a rallying cry for right-leaning voters, who also upped their donations. The sentencing will likely pour more funds into the Trump campaign’s coffers, which could give him an edge at a critical point in the race.
Of course, it is also important to note that much of the impacts, negative or positive, will be greatly influenced by the nature of Trump’s sentence. If he is forced to pay a fine or spend a few days in jail, then the effects will still be felt, but to a lesser degree than if he is sentenced to years behind bars or on house arrest. It also raises another question: If Trump is in jail on Election Day and wins, what happens then?
There is quite a bit hanging on September 18 that could not only influence the outcome of the election but also American politics as a whole.
