Since Election Night of 2012, I have been saying this. I am a broken record on it. The Democrats’ ultimate election problem is that they have confused Barack Obama’s base for their base. They are not the same and the late polling is showing it.

Suddenly, Republicans are finding more seats in play for the House. Additionally, Senate seats are now breaking the GOP’s way.

In 2008 and 2012, voters turned out to elect Barack Obama. They stood in solidarity with him. If he asked them to jump, they asked how high they should jump. but without him on the ballot, they are not there for him. But in 2010, his voters stayed home.

With the President out asking Democrats to cancel Ebola quarantines, messing up our handling of ISIS, etc., etc. etc. some of the voters who would otherwise stay loyal are no more. Others will no longer stand by their man. But the greatest share of them just simply will not turn out without Barack Obama on the ballot.

It turns out Barack Obama not being on the ballot is a double edged sword. His policies are and voters can go vote against his policies without having to vote against him. But, at the same time, a lot of voters who hear “Barack Obama is not on the ballot” will not go vote because they are his, not the Democrats, and they know he does not really need them.

The ironic humor in this election is that every time Democrats say “President Obama is not on the ballot,” more voters conclude they then do not have to go stand by their man. And this becomes a latent problem for 2016. These voters belong to Barack Obama, not the Democrats. They are going to have to fight for them then.