The real issue with the immigration debate is not a question of what to do with those illegals already here; it is a question of what to do with the next wave.,.and the next wave….and the next wave.

While everyone is focused on the past – what to do with those already here – and the future – whether the promises of more enforcement will ever materialize – nobody is focusing on the present.  In anticipation of a mass amnesty and perennial suspension of deportations, migrants from Central America are rushing to cross our borders.  Yes, these people all follow social media.  Here is a key finding from the New York Times:

Now the Rio Grande Valley has displaced the Tucson enforcement zone as the hot spot, with makeshift rafts crossing the river in increasing numbers, high-speed car chases occurring along rural roads and a growing number of dead bodies turning up on ranchers’ land, according to local officials. […]

But after nearly a decade of steady declines, the count has started to rise again over the past year, driven by the rise in the southern tip of Texas, where the numbers so far this fiscal year are up 55 percent. Since October, 94,305 individuals have been apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley alone, topping the count in Tucson for the first time since 1993.

Critics of the Senate legislation, including Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, point to the influx in the Rio Grande Valley enforcement zone as proof that the bill must explicitly mandate “full operational control” of the border within a decade before any immigrants who were once here illegally could be allowed to proceed toward citizenship.

Hence, when you begin telegraphing the message that as long as you can make it across the border or overstay your visa, we will never send you back, there will be an immediate influx of illegal immigrants.  That is why it makes no sense to begin any legalization before implementation of border and interior security.  Under these half-baked Republican compromise plans that will promise enforcement after RPI status is granted, all the new illegals who come during the ensuing years will be here to stay forever.  They must be afforded the reasonable opportunity to come forward and apply for status.  Any illegal can potentially be in the country prior to 2012; anyone could potentially pay the $500 fine; anyone could potentially be an Ag worker who is eligible for full legal status in 5 years.  And anyone could potentially be eligible for the Dream Act.  By the time to RPI process is complete, we will have several million more illegals living “in the shadows” and part of the American fabric, along with their anchor babies, for a number of years.

There are some analysts, including the incomparable Michael Barone, who think that we won’t experience a third wave of illegal immigration from Mexico because of their declining birthrates.  But that is nothing more than wishful thinking. First, according to a recent Pew survey, 35% of Mexicans would like to come here.  That’s 39 million people.  Moreover, these optimists are overlooking the recent influx of migrants from Central American countries.  Here is how the Times describes the recent rush across the border:

The surge in South Texas is driven mostly by immigrants originating not from Mexico but from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, officials said. The Mexican border city of Reynosa is the end of a railway that begins in southern Mexico, and many migrants ride the roofs of freight trains to reach the United States.

We’ve seen this bad movie before; we know how it will end.  In fact, we are already getting a sneak preview.

Democrats will continue to hammer on this issue, even if we successfully defeat this iteration of amnesty.  They will attempt to repackage this proposal in numerous forms as long as Republicans fail to formulate a coherent opposition.  We need to draw a clear red line going forward to block any and every form of legalization until the enforcement measures are implemented and the financial magnets are removed.  That means no Dream Act, no Ag worker amnesty, and no ‘too clever by the half’ compromises until we begin telegraphing the message that if you come here illegally in the future you will not receive any benefits, birthright citizenship, or accommodations.

The lawlessness must stop now.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project