While our two-party dominant political system isn't favorable to independent candidates securing a White House win, they can still decide the election, anyway.
On Tuesday, in the wake of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcing his running mate would be the affluent 38-year-old tech lawyer and major Democrat donor, Nicole Shanahan, signs of stress began to appear from those in President Joe Biden's re-election camp.
Panic set in during a call hosted by DNC members, including Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), Lt. Gov. Austin Davis (D-PA), and Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-MI) held immediately after Kennedy's vice president announcement. The Democrats expressed worry that Kennedy's campaign, particularly with his vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan, could spoil Biden's chances.
Davis said,
We are doing everything in our power to get President Biden and Vice President Harris re-elected. It's critical that we take seriously every possible obstacle to that goal. And let me be clear, that's exactly what Robert F. Kennedy is in this election. He's a spoiler.
McMorrow thought it was important for her to be on the call to share "how horrifying this campaign is and what it really means on the ground for Michigan." Importantly, Michigan is seen as a swing state — one that Trump won in 2016 and flipped back to blue in 2020, electing Biden.
McMorrow said,
Him [Kennedy] being in the race means that there is a greater likelihood that Donald Trump will become president again.
Garcia decided it was personally offensive, disgusting, and should illicit shame that Kennedy would engage in the political process and exercise his rights as an American citizen, saying,
I am personally offended and just disgusted by his campaign. He should be ashamed of himself. He should stop running for president.
Recent polling agrees that a three-way split of the votes benefits Trump. The poll from Real Clear Politics suggests Trump leading Biden by two points (46.7 to 44.7 percent) in a two-candidate race, and by 4.3 percent (39.8 to 35.5 percent, with Kennedy at 15.0 percent) in a three-candidate race.
Even Trump himself agrees, posting that Kennedy's candidacy is "great for MAGA" in a Truth Social post made early Wednesday, writing:
RFK Jr. is the most Radical Left Candidate in the race, by far. He’s a big fan of the Green New Scam, and other economy killing disasters. I guess this would mean he is going to be taking votes from Crooked Joe Biden, which would be a great service to America. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, is even more “Liberal” than him, if that’s possible. Kennedy is a Radical Left Democrat, and always will be!!! It’s great for MAGA, but the Communists will make it very hard for him to get on the Ballot. Expect him, and her, to be indicted any day now, probably for Environmental Fraud! He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine. I love that he is running!
Tyler Bower, an RNC National Committeeman and COO of Turning Point Action, made a social media post indicating that he believes the addition of Shanahan to Kennedy's ticket will result in a two to three-point upswing for Trump, writing:
It is official, both candidates are center-left. It should result in a minimum of a 2-3 point add to Trump’s numbers in every state they make the ballot. Based on 2020 numbers, that puts the following states into play: New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico
Undoubtedly, Kennedy and Shanahan just set the stage and dictated the political terrain to be navigated in the 2024 election that appears will be won on the margins. And yes, the Democrats are panicking.
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