Liz Cheney has made a lot of new friends since diving headfirst in the flaming dumpster fire that is the January 6th committee. The Wyoming congresswoman spent the last year-and-a-half doing cable news hits and ranting about a completely unsubstantiated conspiracy to overthrow the government by former President Donald Trump.

What Cheney hasn’t done is convince her constituents she deserves to be re-elected. The first official polling has been released in the Cowboy State, commissioned by the Casper Star-Tribune, the largest newspaper in Wyoming. What it shows is the incumbent staring at total destruction.

“Former President Donald Trump’s pick to unseat Rep. Liz Cheney in the race for Wyoming’s lone House seat holds a commanding 22-point lead with a month until the primary” https://t.co/AQjBiIqOAA

— Eddie Zipperer (@EddieZipperer) July 16, 2022

Former President Donald Trump’s pick to unseat Rep. Liz Cheney in the race for Wyoming’s lone House seat holds a commanding 22-point lead with a month until the primary, a new Casper Star-Tribune poll shows.

Natural resources attorney Harriet Hageman leads Cheney 52% to 30%, the poll shows. No other challenger received more than 5% support. Only 11% of voters were undecided.

The poll, conducted for the Star-Tribune by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, surveyed 1,100 registered Wyoming voters likely to participate in the primary, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, according to Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon managing director.

Just weeks prior to this poll dropping, Cheney had expressed confidence she would win re-election. She also once again teased a run for president in 2024, a notion so crazy that it mimics parody. There’s just no path here for her, though. Twenty-two points is an insurmountable lead for Hageman, and despite Cheney’s attempts to court Democrat voters, there’s not enough of them in Wyoming to save her. The math just doesn’t work, no matter how much resistance porn gets put out there by the national media.

With that said, I doubt Cheney goes away quietly. The primary occurs on August 16th, a month from this writing. That will leave her about two weeks before the filing deadline to garner enough signatures (about 3,700 under Wyoming rules) to appear on the ballot as an independent, and I bet that’s her plan.

That’s not a path to victory, though. The top Democrat candidate for this House seat drew about 66,000 votes during the 2020 election. Even if Cheney gets every single one of those votes and pulls a quarter of Republicans, she’d still lose. And to be clear, Cheney is not going to get every single Democrat in Wyoming to vote for her. There is still going to be a real Democrat on the ballot who will garner a significant amount of blue voters.

That all adds up to more MSNBC hits because Cheney’s career in politics is over. It would take a cataclysmic, unheard-of shift for her to regain her House seat in Wyoming, and talk of her running for president is enough to make one’s sides hurt from laughter.