With the 2024 elections rapidly receding in the background, political hacks like me are also increasingly focused on the upcoming 2026 federal elections for the 35 U.S. Senate seats. This includes two special elections in Florida and Ohio – for the seats vacated by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 23 of the 35 seats are held by the Republicans. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to retake control of the Senate.
So, it's time for another handy-dandy chart, partially “lifted” from Wikipedia, detailing the Senate races that will be in the eye of the storm, either competitive or potentially competitive. This includes those races that are only competitive in the primary.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Senate races do not necessarily go against the incumbent president’s party. For example, in 2018, during President Trump’s first term, he lost huge in the House but also gained 2 seats in the Senate.
Normally, whichever party has momentum in the year wins many of the competitive seats. However, the party shift will depend on which party has more competitive seats, and especially, which party has more open seats (which are always more likely to flip).
State | Senator | Last | My Rating | Comments | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | Ashley Moody | Appointed | Likely R | Moody was appointed, but she was elected statewide before as the Florida Attorney General, she is popular, the Democrats have collapsed in the state, and no strong Democrat is considering this race. GOP Rep. Corey Mills had announced he would run for the seat before Moody was chosen; it is unclear if he really will give up his House seat to challenge her. The Democrats need to get lucky here to win the general. | ||||||
Georgia | Jon Ossoff | 50.62% D | Tossup if Kemp runs or Tilt D | Ossoff is very endangered. If Gov. Brian Kemp challenges him, Ossoff may even be the underdog, with a conservative poll showing him down by 6 points. If Kemp doesn’t run, it is likely that the GOP will have a strong candidate – maybe a congressman like Rep. Buddy Carter or a lower-level statewide elected official – but then Ossoff should have a narrow edge. Ossoff will have a fundraising edge over any candidate but Kemp and the state is a total dead heat at this point. The national environment will certainly matter in this race. | ||||||
Illinois | Dick Durbin | 54.93% D | Solid D, unless Durbin retires when it drops to Likely D | Although Trump won a respectable vote here in 2024, Durbin is very safe, assuming he runs for re-election. If he retires, the Democrats have a big edge, with several lower-level state officials and congressmen being possibilities. The GOP would have to get lucky here, as it has only a handful of congressmen, and these officials would be very unlikely to run in a tough race. | ||||||
Iowa | Joni Ernst | 51.74% R | Likely R | Although Ernst has angered some MAGA types on Twitter with her cabinet concerns, this will likely all be forgotten in the race. There are no strong Republicans likely to challenge her – especially if there is an open Governor’s race – and the Democrat bench is very thin. Only if things swing heavily against the GOP and she makes mistakes could she lose to the likely 3rd tier Democrat that will oppose her. | ||||||
Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | 57.76% R | Solid R, or if Beshear runs it drops to Likely R | McConnell’s decision to vote against Hegseth shows that he likely plans to retire in 2026. Otherwise, he would probably lose to another Republican. If he retires, there are several GOP congressmen and lower-level statewide officials who might run. The Democrats only have Gov. Beshear, who is unlikely to run, as he knows he would be a solid underdog to a decent Republican. | ||||||
Louisiana | Bill Cassidy | 59.32% R | Solid R | Cassidy has a primary problem. He voted to impeach Trump, and already, John Flemming, the state treasurer and former congressman, has announced. Other Republicans may join. The Democrats are basically moribund on the federal level, so there is no danger of the seat flipping. Cassidy will probably try to curry favor with President Trump to avert any strong challenge. | ||||||
Maine | Susan Collins | 50.98% R | Lean R | Even if the economy is bad, Collins should have the edge here. She has developed a strong independent reputation, which is important in a Democrat state. Despite her votes against the GOP and Trump, she is unlikely to face repercussions in the primary. (As my old boss Sen. Rick Santorum once said, Collins is with us when we need her to be.) President Trump is unlikely to oppose her. Democrats who would be 1st tier challengers are the governor and two congressmen. Rep. Golden, who worked for Collins, is likely to run for governor. Gov. Mills and Rep. Pingree are probably too old to run. So, it is more likely a state legislator or another 2nd tier challenger will have to step up. It should help Collins that she is the new chair of the Appropriations Committee. | ||||||
Massachusetts | Ed Markey | 66.15% D | Solid D | Markey, approaching 80, and firmly stuck in the decade of the 70s, is safe in the general election but may face a challenge in the primary. Rep. Jake Auchincloss, a former Marine, who is much younger, appears to be considering a race. Markey would start out with the edge, but as an outdated politician, he could be outhustled by a fresher face. No credible Republican is likely to run. | ||||||
Michigan | Gary Peters | 49.90% D | Tilt D | Peters recently announced his retirement, throwing the situation into chaos. There are potentially large numbers of ambitious politicians of both parties who may make the race. Gov. Whitmer has said no, but several lower-level statewide officials are considering, including the Lt. Gov., as well as some Democrat congressmen like Rep. Haley Stevens. Pete Buttigieg, the Indiana politician who ran for President and then served as U.S. Secretary of Transportation, is also considering. Meanwhile, the GOP candidates may include Rep. John James, who ran twice before for Senate unsuccessfully, but who has rebounded with two narrow House wins. Since James’ House seat is not safe, this might prod him into running for Senate. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who only narrowly lost the Senate race last year, would also be a strong candidate. Rep. Bill Huizenga is also considering and has overperformed in his district. Assuming both parties get strong candidates – which seems likely – the Democrat should have a slight edge, assuming there is any sort of tide against the GOP. | ||||||
New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | 56.64% D | Lean D | Shaheen is likely to run for reelection – she has been voting like she will – although at her age things could conceivably change. Former Gov. Sununu, the strongest potential GOP challenger, will not run. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown has been considering it, and he ran against Shaheen in 2014 when he barely lost to her in a very pro-GOP environment. However, Shaheen, who also served as a New Hampshire governor, should have the edge over Brown, unless she makes major mistakes. | ||||||
North Carolina | Thom Tillis | 48.69% R | Tilt R, or Toss Up if there is a bitter primary, a bad environment, or Gov. Cooper challenges him | Tillis is in danger in both the primary and the general in a state that has only a slight Republican edge. As a RedState colleague of mine has shown, Tillis played dirty in the Senate drama over Secretary of Defense Hegseth. He also has earned the ire of MAGA types and conservatives before. A Republican has already been announced, but this candidate is not credible. Former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper has hinted that he may run against Tillis; if so, the general becomes a toss-up. There are also many congressmen and lower-level statewide officials of both parties who could potentially challenge him. It seems likely that another Republican will jump into the race, and if President Trump endorses that Republican, this could be the end of Tillis. If he makes it to the general, a non-Cooper Democrat could also bump him off if the primary was especially bitter, or the environment is anti-GOP. The only reason I have the seat still tilting GOP is that in federal elections, the GOP seems to have a narrow edge. | ||||||
Ohio | Jon Husted | Appointed | Likely R | Husted was appointed as the sitting Lt. Gov. He also served in other minor statewide offices and in the state legislature. He was already preparing to run for governor, so he has already set up a statewide campaign. Husted is close to Gov. DeWine but also gets along with MAGA types. Unless he antagonizes President Trump, a strong primary opponent is unlikely. Ohio is probably a solid Republican state at this point, although it is possible that Trump not being on the ballot will hurt the GOP. Ousted (in 2024) Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown has hinted he might run; he would get a respectable number of votes, but few ousted incumbents are able to win back Senate seats. They are often considered yesterday’s news (and Brown is rather old at this point). If Brown doesn’t run, there is no obvious 1st tier candidate on the Democrat side. | ||||||
South Carolina | Lindsey Graham | 54.44% R | Likely R | Graham is safe in the general election but could face an opponent from the conservative and/or MAGA side in the primary. However, Trump is unlikely to endorse another Republican in this race, as he and Graham get along, and Graham will have a lot of money to spend. Also, no prominent Republicans have yet announced their intention to challenge Graham. There are no strong Democrats to run against Graham. | ||||||
Texas | John Cornyn | 53.51% R | Likely R but Lean R if he isn’t the candidate | Cornyn has already announced he is seeking another term, but that was before he failed to win the majority leader position. Thus, it would not be unheard of if he retired. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is widely considered a potential challenger to Cornyn. Paxton is considered more MAGA, but it is unclear that President Trump would support him over Cornyn. In fact, Trump might end up endorsing Cornyn, if he fears a bitter primary could cost the GOP this seat. Paxton also has a corruption scandal hanging over his head. The Democrats will probably have a strong, 2nd tier candidate here – they don’t have any statewide officials right now – but in the last election, Trump and Sen. Cruz won more solidly than they did before. | ||||||
Virginia | Mark Warner | 55.99% D | Likely D, or Lean D if Gov. Youngkin runs | Warner is the stronger of the two Democrat Senators in Virginia, and he is very safe, unless (by then) former Gov. Glen Youngkin challenges him. Youngkin is unlikely to do so, as federal races are tough for the GOP to win, thanks to the massive presence of liberal-leaning government workers in Northern Virginia. A 2nd or 3rd tier Republican will likely break 40%, but not by much. |
Right now, the competitive seats, in the general election, are limited to Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and possibly New Hampshire, Florida, and Ohio. Four GOP seats, and three Democrat seats. With these numbers, the Democrats will need a bad national environment, or a lot of luck, to win back the Senate.
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